Corn pollination may finish before heat arrives

FOR THURSDAY:  (7/14) Forecasts put 90 to 100 degree temperatures in key soybean areas next week, which could hurt crop development. Corn closed higher, although gains were pared late, on lingering support from Tuesday when USDA raised this year’s exports, partly because of an expected smaller crop in Brazil. Soft red winter wheat finished about 2 cents higher and hard red winter near unchanged. USDA confirmed on Tuesday there will be plenty of wheat in the world, with the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine all expected to harvest more.

Still, much of corn pollination should be done by the time the heat arrives but concerns still remain that a stretch of above-normal heat with dry conditions could still affect yields. Cycles aren’t giving us too many clues. We have had a bias toward a bearish reaction by Monday but those forecasts flip so easily it’s hard to gamble on unless you get in at good levels with big pockets.

Ag weather trumps crop report

FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/13) Not sure what we learned from the reaction to Tuesdays reports other than the funds will buy overbought conditions if they think there is any hint of prices going up. We’re open to higher prices into Friday and if the weather changes it looks like the market could dump early next week. If not, beans might get carried along  the path of least resistance.

Cattle are still a sale on bounces and hogs may need to be higher for 1-2 days. Soybeans were helped by new forecasts showing hot weather moving into the Midwest.

More corn ending stocks?

FOR TUESDAY: (7/12) The 6- to 10-day forecast (July 16-20) shows hot, but seasonal moisture for the Midwest. Soybeans last week rated 71% good/excellent. On Tuesday, the USDA releases the monthly WASDE report with the trade largely expecting an increase in 2016/2017 corn ending stocks.

Tuesday’s WASDE report is expected to raise 2016/2017 soybean ending stocks from June’s 260 million. While rain has slowed the winter wheat harvest, custom harvesters continue to report big yields. There has been some slippage in test weights because of the rain, they said. The harvest moves into Nebraska and South Dakota next week.

Excess rain has hurt the crop in France, Europe’s key producer. Harvest starts there this month, with forecasts showing more rain. Last week, the EU estimated the wheat harvest at 144.6 million metric tons, down from the previous estimate of 145.1 million.

Fortucast Ag Markets Overview

FOR MONDAY: (7/11) Oversold conditions on Friday led to short-covering and weather reports change every 12 hours. For now, the trade wanted to take profits but cycle seem lower Sunday-Tuesday for grains unless we get some new weather forecasts turning hotter and drier. Meats still look under pressure early next week but may do some short-covering into the end of next week.