Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (6/22) Trade waiting on Friday OPEC meeting but it bleeds into Saturday so may have wild action on Sunday. Stocks getting more serious about shorts and metals running out of time for new lows by Sunday night or early Monday. Dollar looks lower into Sunday.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (6/21) Trade waiting on Friday OPEC meeting, and new highs on NQ cash mean that they will buy Amazon when everything else is starting to be in trouble. We’ll wait for the morning but the rule is not to sell after a sucker punch and new highs in a market, and NQ may bring SP up eventually. Gold and silver look lower on Thursday.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/20) We have the sense of the other shoe dropping and concerns about wild things happening and find it hard to put on positions overnight now. Will see what develops in the morning and take more stances here. Tuesday was a bit of a surprise day and still shaking off the dust.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) Dollar starting to look lower into Sunday with 1-day to rally this week on Wednesday. Stocks should be lower all week. Oil still has a few days before we can sell again. There’s a volatile cycle on Tuesday/Wednesday so watch for whippy action.

SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) We suggested first exits on shorts at 2761 and the market hit 2761.25 so using our 5-minute rule on close numbers, we’re assuming that you went to the market and got some positions off. Not happy with the rebound to 2780 but we had noted that upper channel resistance was at 2784.50, and that’s probably the next overnight sell area. Market may hold up the first few hours of trading and then sell-off so we’ll be patient about new sales. Key support is at 2740 and once that comes out the trade will jump on shorts and more massive erosion will surface.

It’s hard to project where a first early summer fall will go to but the 2590 region is calling out for a number of reasons, and a key Andrew’s line is there as well as a retest of the May 3 low. For now, we’re focusing on cycle lows into June 25 and will evaluate cycles more closely for the summer soon. Seasonally, we’ve seen falls into early July be scooped up for secondary highs.

We’re seeing volatile political and war-like cycles this summer but how much they will impact the US and whether the market will care remains to be seen.

CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Recovering Tuesday; generally lower into Friday; lower into June 25.

FOR MONDAY: (6/18) Stocks cycles look lower next week; gold looks like it could have a 2-3-day bounce from lower levels and the dollar and euro need to retrace those huge moves from Thursday for a few days. Crude not done until 6087 but short-covering likely to start soon before contract expiration.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (6/15) We didn’t get dramatic reversals like we had expected except for the dollar and the euro, and new highs on NQ don’t bode well for this market. If China tariffs aren’t as bad as expected, the market could celebrate and do what it does best and buy Netflix and Amazon.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (6/14) Cycles turn more volatile on Thursday afternoon and thinking a cycle low into Monday for stocks. ECB craziness is often worse than FOMC craziness so we’re a bit gun shy and have to focus on key patterns and numbers and cycles. We have gold lower for a few days, which means that the euro may come off.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/13) We looked closely at cycles on Wednesday and they seem firm and then more volatile on Thursday. New continuation highs on NQ should bring SP up so not expecting anything wild to the downside, and the divergent high seems likely. Other markets were too congestive to give us too many clues. While we have a bias toward lower dollars and higher gold, we have learned not to try to overpredict computer algos and surprises.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (6/12) The Trump meeting is 9 am Singapore time so we will get the drift of it tonight in the evening news. The bigger events are a Brexit vote on Tuesday and waiting for FOMC on Wednesday, but probably ECB on Thursday will have the most impact on the week. We do expect that a divergent high on stocks should finally lead to something bigger with a cycle low for stocks into Monday.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (6/11) The G-7 meeting in Canada runs over the weekend with fireworks expected, and we’ll see how markets are impacted. They may wait until Sunday to explode one way or the other. Hard to imagine Trump backing down but is that positive or negative for the dollar? Stocks cycles do point lower from Wednesday, June 13 into June 18 but will the trade try to make a divergent high first? We’re completing research through late July and are clear on the next week but always a congestive mess and surprises with FOMC and ECB this week so it boils down to gambling unless patterns and cycles are really clear, and there are some places that is true.

SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (6/11) Stocks held up better than we expected. Our stop held but we’re going into Sunday, which is often vulnerable. We can use a slightly higher stop, as we do expect an early week low before FOMC. We’re counting on the typical 35-50-point pre-FOMC retracement on Monday but we’re also dealing with a cash pattern that may lead to a divergent high.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower June 11.