Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (6/8) The G-7 meeting in Canada runs Friday and Saturday with fireworks expected, and we’ll see how markets are impacted. They may wait until Sunday to explode one way or the other. Hard to imagine Trump backing down but is that positive or negative for the dollar? We have currency rollovers and stock index rollers and FOMC on Wednesday so we’re more likely to get large range of congestion–and if there are counter-thrusts, we would expect them on Sunday night/Monday. Need to complete our June/July cycle work on Friday to see if cycles are confirming what patterns are implying.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (6/7) Stocks cycles are running out of time and energy. Often, the market will top out the first few weeks of June. Divergent high for NQ the next few days should be the beginning of the end for the summer so bears should start to salivate. For now, the bulls will stay in control a few more days. We have rollover coming for June currencies and stock indices and then congestion before the FOMC meeting next week so the easy trading may be just about over.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/6) Stocks cycles are running out of time and energy. Often, the market will top out the first few weeks of June. Divergent high for NQ the next few days should be the beginning of the end for the summer so bears should start to salivate. For now, the bulls will stay in control a few more days.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (6/5) Overbought conditions could lead to a minor pullback for stocks. The dollar is also due for a bounce; bonds are at key support, and a 1-day bounce would be helpful. Not sure anything that happens on Tuesday will mean much except redressing oversold conditions.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (6/1) Trade waiting on employment report. Stocks look friendly into at least June 7; the dollar looks lower into Friday and gold higher and crude higher for Friday. T-notes look lower into next week. Always surprises with these reports so it’s always difficult to get too exposed before a report. We’re starting to see lower dollars all of next week and that will keep us out of shorting gold too early. One has to wonder if stocks can come back given background noise.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (5/31) Trade waiting on employment report. Stocks look higher into at least June 7; the dollar looks lower into Friday and gold higher and crude higher. T-notes look lower into next week. Always surprises with these reports so it’s always difficult to get too exposed before a report.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (5/24) The trade is leaving for the holidays and we rarely do well holiday trading or post-holiday trading. Usually the day after a holiday is filled with head fakes and double head fakes, and the wise trader waits for the noise to settle down to play. Moreover, we’re moving into the end of the month next week. We are lightening up on trading and with our travel schedule, we will have few reports until Tuesday but will cover key news events if we see something you should be aware.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/23) Have to be concerned about thinning conditions as traders head toward the exits ahead of Memorial Day. We have a bias for a stock market pullback into Friday, and Tuesday’s failure supports it. Wednesday is still a transition day. We hate pre-holiday trading and have to hold back and then wait for huge release on Tuesday when everyone comes back.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Still should be an active day before it thins out before the holidays. Cycles are positive and we see a good chance for stocks to spurt. Willing to buy pullbacks on gold and silver for countertrend plays, and we like crude into Thursday if we can get a pullback.

JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Market was strongly higher and had nowhere to go. At worst, probably a pullback to 2723.50 but still could see 2765.50 this week. Will look for a buy in the morning. What is promising is the fact that our fears for a retest of 2700 or lower to 2694 never manifested last Friday during the weakest day of the run. If the market can’t decisively take out 2641-2 Tuesday, the hopes for 2765-74 may be delayed or they just may drag out into early June as the trade gets ready for Memorial Day.
OVERALL: We’re not expecting any major fallout and a new high to 2779 or more is possible into June if the market behaves. Lately, seasonal trends have extended later in June rather than May, and often this occurs after the 2nd week of June.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher Tuesday; topping Wednesday; lower into Friday.

FOR MONDAY: (5/21) We’re moving into a pre-holiday week and the trade may be going home after Wednesday. Monday morning looks lower for stocks so we’re open to a pullback but it may end up being a buy into Tuesday. Gold and silver look higher much of next week as does crude, and the dollar should pullback next week.Continue reading