Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/31) Huge cycles the next few days and we have State of the Union, FOMC and the Congressional memo bombshell due to be released within in a few days. Market has already been crazily volatile but we expect that to increase. We should get recoveries, and the promises for infrastructure development for the US should get things going. The fall on NQ wasn’t as pronounced as S & P, and it should’ve been more with the I-Phone X forecasts and that seems to be a bright spot.

S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/31) Our day-trade hotline made decent money selling in the 2840/38 region this morning. The chance for a recovery with the State of the Union tonight is likely, as it’s close to major support at 2820 and will easily go back to 2840 parabolic resistance. Cycles are volatile for Wednesday but we favor upward action into Friday. For weeks we had looked for a 70-point correction matching the August 2017 one and it’s just about in, but technically and we can’t rule out 2810 on futures or 2809 on cash before the market takes off again. We’re not favoring the larger 130-point correction on cash at this time, and ideally we would like to see one more new high. We cannot get beared-up, as we have seen for months what happens to the bears. Not willing to watch all night so we’ll see what develops in the morning.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Volatile but higher into Jan. 31; generally higher into Friday.

FOR FRIDAY: (1/26) So a tag team with the Treasury Secretary talking down the dollar the last few days and Trump talking it back up. Created a lot of craziness for the markets on Thursday and now we have to wait for his DAVOS speech. Looks like stocks will recover on Friday.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (1/25) NQ 7000 was too much for even number “sell junkies” and Paulson’s statement sent the dollar to the worst start in 30 years.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (1/25) We had talked about a cycle low into Wednesday but gave up on it when the market just kept going up. Day-trade hotline sold 2854 but took quick profits and our buy at 2842 and 2840.50 didn’t get cancelled as 2856 just missed printing and we took two 10-12 point losses. Is the market matching the correction we saw on Jan. 16, which would project 2815? While we do have to worry about rising rates, not quite thinking this market is done or that a 70- or 100-point correction is starting here but a close under 2810 might change our mind.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/24) Latest Washington gridlock: will we see Schumer taking away Trump’s wall by the Feb. 8 budget deadline. Still, that’s plenty of time for the market to go up. We have a chance for a stock market pullback into Wednesday and then it would be a buy but we can’t count on pullbacks. Dollar breakdown below 9000 is rather ominous.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (1/23) Not sure what the next crisis will bring but market continues its massive self-generating upward movement and it seems pointless to look for a pullback. Past cycles suggest a 2-day pullback but bears easily get killed picking tops so if we get one, we can buy. Dollar looks higher now for a few weeks and crude may retrace a few days and this is buy and time’s up for metals to rally, and they’re struggling and we need to start selling.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (1/22) There is a budget ceiling vote being called at 10 pm ET on Friday. The markets are optimistic, with NQ and SP making new highs on the day. Always find it hard to trade these gap ups or gap downs unless there’s a clear pattern completion and oversold or overbought condition to go the other way on. Our cycle work has suggested lower dollar and higher crude. We hate these days where key numbers are on the edge of breaking and waiting for the news to come out. They’re tradable with breakout and breakdown stops but not when they happen over the weekend and gaps happen. In the end the trade should be getting frustrated with the kick the can action and more importantly the FBI/DOJ scandal is likely to erupt big time.

FOR FRIDAY: (1/19) We have very little to add from the morning report, as everyone is waiting on the budget ceiling, and markets are close to breaking down but good news and they will go to upper targets that haven’t come in like 1348 on gold or 2820 on the S & P or 8964 or 8936 on the dollar. If there’s no agreement by late Friday, then all craziness will happen on Sunday night and it won’t be very tradable.

Government is good to at waiting to the last minute but we do sense they will come up with something before the markets’ up on Sunday night but who wants to gamble on these gaps? At publication, it appears that the House will pass but that the Senate will not.

FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Basically, the market remains invincible although Bitcoin is starting to live up to its worry model. Starting to believe more in the dollar–and if Congress comes through they will confirm our cycles and punch through 9100, and that will confirm the break on gold needed to 1292. Markets still in a holding pattern and even the double-top on stocks isn’t as strong as a new high.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Sucker-punch day and the move to 2809 should easily generate 2820 next. Patterns are projecting 2856 but we’re not quite ready to embrace that. Proportions for a double-top don’t quite look right so a quick push up to 2818-20 is more likely to happen. Market may have a dip near the open on Thursday but have to assume it will continue on its merry way higher. The budget deficit is the only albatross out there hanging on the market and it hasn’t been a huge game changer. The feeling is that Congress will pass a one-month budget and kick the can down the road to have more time to iron things out.
SHORT-TERM: (1/15) We think the market will pause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It then seems like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) While it looks like we got the post-3-day weekend reversal for stocks, not confirmed yet for gold and the dollar or crude although they are stalling. We do have the budget deficit and Bitcoin falling out of bed on Asian crackdowns on Bitcoin action. Cycles remain a bit volatile still but given buy energy for stocks we wouldn’t be shocked to get a rubber band bounce by the morning.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) Our day-trade update sold 2806 and took nice profits but had suggested that the market needed to go to key MA support near 2770. Are we starting the 70-point pullback? A sale near 2800 was a natural think to do and cycle had pointed lower this week but we’re so jaded on expecting pullbacks. Daily chart patterns point to 2692 if acceleration now happens through 2665. Have seen so many suck punches that even if want to sell we need to wait for a 62% retracement up toward 2793.
NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up.
SHORT-TERM: (1/15) We think the market will pause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It then seems like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.

FOR TUESDAY: (1/16) Our cycle and pattern work shows major completions on Monday but without a key trigger and reversal, we can’t fight these trending situations that funds are eating up. It’s easy just to throw money at them and make money. Long weekends can reverse situations. Stocks should stall at 2800 and get jitters before the budget ceiling. Starting to run out of time for the exuberance cycles but S & P projecting 2980 on the SP, and we originally thought that might take until June but easily will come in sooner.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (1/16) The S & P is closer to 2800 but the parabolic rise of the market continues to be astounding and latest projection of 2983 originally might have come in toward June but seems like it could happen well before then. If we get a 70-point pullback, and some cycles would allow it, it may not mean much and bears should stop trying to top pick because bull markets make fools out of top-pickers. There’s a five-count complete from the Chinese rumor fall but not sure we can count on a 70-point pullback. Much above 2800 and the market is projecting 2989 on the daily chart. Greed has not restraints. No point in top-picking.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.