FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Basically, the market remains invincible although Bitcoin is starting to live up to its worry model. Starting to believe more in the dollar–and if Congress comes through they will confirm our cycles and punch through 9100, and that will confirm the break on gold needed to 1292. Markets still in a holding pattern and even the double-top on stocks isn’t as strong as a new high.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Sucker-punch day and the move to 2809 should easily generate 2820 next. Patterns are projecting 2856 but we’re not quite ready to embrace that. Proportions for a double-top don’t quite look right so a quick push up to 2818-20 is more likely to happen. Market may have a dip near the open on Thursday but have to assume it will continue on its merry way higher. The budget deficit is the only albatross out there hanging on the market and it hasn’t been a huge game changer. The feeling is that Congress will pass a one-month budget and kick the can down the road to have more time to iron things out.
SHORT-TERM: (1/15) We think the market will pause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It then seems like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.
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