Category: Financial Markets Update

Cycles are likely to be more erratic on Tuesday and the market is already behaving strangely with new anxiety with Europe, Italy and Greece and France. We have to go with our original forecast for the week but some markets are a bit out of sync. Chalking it up for a typical post weekend hangover from the Super Bowl and back to business as usual on Tuesday?Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (2/6) Hard to take too much home over the weekend given wild tweets from Trump, saber-rattling with Iran and China back on the offensive raising interest rates. We still feel good about short gold next week and long dollars but don’t expect any easy trading in Feb and the wheels will start coming off soon probably by the week of Feb. 12.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (2/3) Another employment report day. The dollar is bid with a great number expected but will Amazon earnings disappoint the party? We have a bias toward higher dollars and lower gold into at least Sunday with a bounce Monday and then generally prices for gold into Feb. 11. That would suggest a larger bounce for at least a week for the dollar and key support has held.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (2/2) Trade waiting on employment numbers on Friday. The day after FOMC is more often down for stocks so sideways to lower is possible, although any good news would be exaggerated to the upside by strong cycles. Will exit short dollars on Thursday if the market cannot fall apart overnight.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/1) Presidential whiplash is not going to make trading easy  for weeks or months. A tweet here, an executive order there and a counter coup defiant stand over there are making the news fun to watch again. When it starts happening with North Korea and China, we had better get our helmets. Currencies are the craziest of the bunch. Markets are overdone going into the FOMC announcement and given daily surprises, it’s hard to take positions home unless you really have a clear pattern and cycle. Still, it looks like higher stocks and notes for Wednesday, lower gold, recovering dollars.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (1/31) Congestive chop in large ranges as we head to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and then Bank of Japan Fed. S & P should complete a bounce and come off a bit on Tuesday but skeptical of a new low. Everything else looks sideways.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (1/30) Cycles look positive on Monday for additional upward action for stocks but the market may still be tiring before Wednesday’s FOMC. We have completed our outlook on the 1st quarter and year and it’s now available.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (1/27) Cycles look more volatile with profit-taking setting in for Friday overall but not expecting any major reversals or seeing any reason to change our long stock/short gold/long dollar orientation. Lots of reports but not sure they’ll tell us much as what do old reports mean when you have all this Trump hope.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (1/26) Breakout move on stocks should not be top-picked. Should run out of steam by Friday or Monday and then congest before another push up. Cycles are still supportive into the week of Feb. 6 but we’ll watch patterns, and a double-top before considering shorts. Dollar could still go lower and gold still has a long way to go to get to 1160-1170 and crude may hold up another day before we can consider shorts.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/25) The Infrastructure Bill that Democrats are dangling in front of Trump has everyone thinking raw materials and industry will benefit. Still a long way away before that passes. In the end, it’s a step in the right direction instead of spending money on useless wars to overthrow regimes and advance the military industrial complex. Stocks staged a minor breakout but not the dollar, and other markets were a bit muddled. Getting 1 week away from FOMC but not sure it matters much this time.Continue reading