FOR FRIDAY: (2/3) Another employment report day. The dollar is bid with a great number expected but will Amazon earnings disappoint the party? We have a bias toward higher dollars and lower gold into at least Sunday with a bounce Monday and then generally prices for gold into Feb. 11. That would suggest a larger bounce for at least a week for the dollar and key support has held.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (2/3) Support is at 2271 and resistance is at 2280 as the market consolidates. A breakdown to 2262 or 2257 may be more likely than a breakout as a few new cycles are weaker today and the market could not muster much on Thursday. We’re not into top-picking. Still possible to see 2308.50 before upward momentum diminishes. Still our minimum target on the week has come in at 2285 and 2287 will be hard to take out if we get a spike to it.
OVERALL: We are still open to seeing slight new highs or secondary highs toward 2290.50 or 2295 or 2309 the next few sessions but doubt that it will happen before employment report. Overall, we continue to look for topping action and a 100-point S & P correction over the next few months. Market a bit too oversold to jump into sales without a recovery. Given the atmosphere out there, we wonder if it will be more. Open to a major short into Feb. 26-28 but have to pick your spots carefully.
THIS WEEK: Still should get a final push up to a new high. If we get a quick recovery of 78% off of the 36-point range to 2290.50, then the 4th-wave congestion triangle will probably be assured and easy to play.
NEAR TERM: It’s possible that a key high for the winter could be in by Feb 6-10 and that highs into the week of Feb. 6-10 are secondary highs. We’re still open to a major pattern completion on cash at 2332 into early Feb but it is probably down to 30% chance to happen and 2309 would be welcome. . The last pullback 2nd wave on the weekly chart was a congestive fall over 10 weeks. If that is the case again, it could be that we have a 100-point congestive pullback into the week of April 9.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Volatile Friday.
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