Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR THURSDAY: (1/5) Stocks remain bid and if 2270 comes out on the S & P, then 2295 won’t be far behind. The dollar trend lower seems clear into Friday and even part of next week and the higher T-note trends also seem clear. Crude got a bullish API but products outweighed with a bad one so will see what they pay attention to. Still favoring lower gold into Friday.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/4) Typical New Years fake-out day where obviously buying is met by wild selling. It confirms our more bearish forecast for stocks with lower stocks into Jan. 12 and a retracement on the dollar to at least 101.48. We should get wild congestive patterns that will make it unclear to trade and not obvious but we have to assume that the fade is on. Healthy for it to happen after the run-up. Often we get a lot of crazy congestion before employment report, and the first week of the year is crazier than usual so may be hard to position trade anything unless you have perfect entries.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (12/30) Not expecting much going into a quiet holiday weekend. If there are no violent shocks over the weekend, we do want to be long and stocks and the dollar next week and they should be oversold enough for better risk/rewards. Crude looks lower next week and gold and silver are topping on Friday and lower into next week.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (12/29) We got too complacent about this week after a nothing day on Tuesday and quiet action overnight on Tuesday night and the trade decided to start taking profits.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/28) The Brits and Canadians are back from Boxer Day on Wednesday so volume should increase a bit on Wednesday. The world seemed to survive terrorist threats over the weekend and that may still allow a last-week final bounce. Still may not get much of anything this week but year-end book-squaring and we’re starting to think a lot of sideways action going nowhere in all the markets until volume returns after vacation. We are inclined to expect end-of-the-week position squaring and then completions of key patterns in early January.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (12/27) Post-holiday markets are hard to trade because of the release of pent-up energy from lack of trading. Given closed European markets, that may not be an issue this week. The Brits and Canadians take an extra day off for Boxers Day so that keeps volume lighter. The world seemed to survive terrorist threats over the weekend and that may still allow a last-week final bounce. Still may not get much of anything this week but year-end book-squaring.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY NIGHT: (12/26-27) We’re flat going into the holiday weekend. Will send additional technical comments in the event of some major volatile event. Otherwise, next update will be Monday afternoon. We would expect that Tuesday may be the best trading day of next week.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.

S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (12/26-27) Market has still done nothing but continue in a 4th-wave congestion pattern, and that will remain the case unless 2040 comes out. That leaves two more new highs to 2295 and 2330 into the New Year. We originally had cycles lower for next week but would feel better if the pattern completion came in on a post-holiday spurt. We’re still dealing with end of the year profit-taking next week, as the market has had a 250 point run-up since the election lows. We will advise on next week’s trading after we get through holiday tensions.

OVERALL: We do see 2295-2300 and then congestion next week or have a surprise pullback if any major terrorist attempts happen and upset the trade. So far they are confined to Europe. Any surprises and a break below 2240 might start leading to 2230 and then 2219.

BIG PICTURE: Patterns suggest two new highs to 2300 and 2330 into early January before we really have to worry about a 100-point pullback that may happen into the spring. Unless there’s something really wild coming, our focus for swing trades will be to buy a pullbacks.

WEEKLY CHART: Market has to hold 2240 and probably the market will not get close to that level. We still would expect a new high by Dec. 22 toward 2296 with additional resistance at 2330. It would seem that 5-wave up from the election low would be complete at 2330 and set up larger fall. Eventually we might get a 110-point correction from 2330 to 2220 and could take a few months which we need to confirm in the cycles. That means that much of the fun of the current rally will be over soon. Daily cash charts starting to project 2300 and weekly charts 2335. We have a bias for higher prices from FOMC into Dec. 22 but we’re not clear how long it will take to do the last push up to 2330. Could be as late as Jan. 7.

MONTHLY CHART PATTERNS: 2420 or 2520 isn’t out of the question before this bull market ends and it takes a long time to turn an ocean liner around in so V-tops and crashes are not to be looked for and publications that steer you that direction are being too sensational.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Dec. 26; profit-taking into Jan. 2.

FOR THURSDAY: (12/22) Holiday slop continuing as players head for the exits and markets continue to be thin. Most markets are only open a ½ day on Friday and are closed on Monday, Dec. 26. Thursday is one of the better days of the week for upward action but the trade is nervous about European terrorism as we go into the holiday. We’re not inclined to take any positions home over the long weekend in the event of a surprise and we’ll continue to look for pattern completions that often come in after thin holiday trading is over. We would expect that Tuesday may be the best trading day of next week.

We have published our monthly Financial Visions report which also features Part 1 of our outlook for next year Contact us at 800-788-2796 or email support@fortucast.com if you want to take advantage of our 20% holiday discount on a subscription

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/21) Trade waiting on GDP on Thursday for something interesting so we may have a lot of congestion and then a lot of position squaring on Thursday. Friday is a ½ day of trading. Winter officially begins on Wednesday but temperatures are warming into Christmas for many part of the country so all the wonderful white of the past week may melt. We’re concerned that sickly holiday trading will force patterns to take their sweet time to complete and we have had to learn patience. Usually the patterns will complete if you wade through the mud of holiday trading. We have published our monthly Financial Visions report which also features Part 1 of our outlook for next year Contact us at 800-788-2796 or email support@fortucast.com if you want to take advantage of our 20% holiday discount on a subscription.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (12/20) So Trump is official per the Electoral College and all the media drama meant nothing but more ratings. Isn’t election news getting a bit tiring folks? We should get the resumption of the Christmas rally if anyone is left to play. Holiday energy is very sluggish and should get abysmal by the end of the week and unfortunately terrorist cycles increase into Christmas and we have had 3 major incidents today. The news will probably get uglier. Riot cycles are high but it seems that places like Venezuela where hyper-inflation is happening and maybe Italy and Greece are the best possible places before the Woman’s March on Washington hits. It’s not going to be a dull and news-less holiday or January.Continue reading