FOR TUESDAY: (12/20) So Trump is official per the Electoral College and all the media drama meant nothing but more ratings. Isn’t election news getting a bit tiring folks? We should get the resumption of the Christmas rally if anyone is left to play. Holiday energy is very sluggish and should get abysmal by the end of the week and unfortunately terrorist cycles increase into Christmas and we have had 3 major incidents today. The news will probably get uglier. Riot cycles are high but it seems that places like Venezuela where hyper-inflation is happening and maybe Italy and Greece are the best possible places before the Woman’s March on Washington hits. It’s not going to be a dull and news-less holiday or January.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY (12/20) Market didn’t fall enough to 2251 to let us in for a buy and with a confirmation for Trump by the Electoral College, will the market take off and leave buyers behind. We do see 2295-2300 this week and then congestion next week or have a surprise pullback if any major terrorist attempts happen and upset the trade. So far they are confined to Europe. Any surprises and a break below 2245 might start leading to 2230 and then 2219.
OVERALL: Patterns suggest two new highs to 2300 and 2330 before we really have to worry about a 100-point pullback which may happen into the spring. Unless there is something really wild coming, our focus for swing trades will be to buy a pullbacks.
WEEKLY CHART: Market has to hold 2240 and probably the market will not get close to that level. We still would expect a new high by Dec. 22 toward 2296 with additional resistance at 2330. It would seem that 5-wave up from the election low would be complete at 2330 and set up larger fall. Eventually we might get a 110-point correction from 2330 to 2220 and could take a few months which we need to confirm in the cycles. That means that much of the fun of the current rally will be over soon. Daily cash charts starting to project 2300 and weekly charts 2335. We have a bias for higher prices from FOMC into Dec. 22 but we’re not clear how long it will take to do the last push up to 2330. Could be as late as Jan. 7.
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