Stocks look lower Sunday night, Monday

FOR MONDAY: (9/17) We have stocks lower on Sunday night and Monday, and would expect that there would at least be some pullback from the hurricane. May be difficult to trade and we’ll have to see how things settle out on Monday. You may have to get something short near the open of Sunday night. Trump plans to announce new tariffs on up to $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Monday in a move that will prompt an immediate retaliation from China, and may lead to a sharply lower futures open on Sunday night.Continue reading

S&P sideways to higher on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (9/14) Pre-hurricane weekend, with cycles intense over the weekend for fear and it doesn’t look like it will be over by Monday but somehow the weather people always having us betting on the end of the world and it’s never quite that bad. Still, it will be a mess and will hurt the dollar short-term and create more debt with federal aid but when you have a printing press, who’s counting? We have been a bit gun shy this week but have had a sense of market numbers and direction. May be able to do something early next week.Continue reading

Bias for higher stocks, lower dollars into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (9/13) Trade waiting on Central Bank craziness for Thursday. We have hurricane and report paralysis for now and maybe we can get through it by early morning when most of it should be out of the way. For now, we have a bias for higher stocks into Friday and lower dollars, and that should allow metals to recover from deeply oversold conditions.Continue reading

Looking for a retracement up to S&P 2897.50

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/12) Super Thursday is approaching with a number of Central Bank meetings (but not the US until Sept. 26). Nothing happening on the commodity front of interest just yet or with other markets. Hurricane Florence and potential damage is a concern, and China rhetoric and planning continues to ratchet up–and it’s not a good idea to corner a Panda when her cubs are threatened. Not going to end well.Continue reading

Stocks still looking bearish

FOR TUESDAY: (9/11) Wondering if 9/11 Memorial will spook anyone on Tuesday. Most markets were quiet and not telling us much, as Super Thursday is approaching with a number of Central Bank meetings (but not the US until Sept. 26). Nothing happening on the commodity front of interest just yet or with other markets. Hurricane Florence and potential damage is a concern, and China rhetoric and planning continues to ratchet up–and it’s not a good idea to corner a Panda when her cubs are threatened. Not going to end well.Continue reading

S&P looks lower into Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (9/10) The Sept. swoon should continue a few more days for stocks before a larger congestive bounce. Given this market’s tendency for sucker punches, we always have to sell at key areas. Is the higher employment data a game changer for bonds and the dollar? Usually it is but we will have to see how it reacts early next week.Continue reading

Can’t short stocks at all-time highs

FOR THURSDAY: (8/30) NQ at all-time highs along with Amazon has to be watched for exhaustion but that point is up to 7754 on NQ futures. Long weekend makes it hard to take a position but the market tends to be higher after Labor Day. and cycle high into Sept. 6 is looming. Any Canada deal going into Friday could be a huge boost by the end of the week. Can’t short stocks at all-time highs.Continue reading

Not in a rush to top-pick S&P

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/29) GDP is on Wednesday and we’re always worried about these holiday weeks, as the trade will start leaving by Wednesday and nothing will happen until Sept. 4. The dollar downtrend is more solid, as is gold, and you can’t sell the stock market when it’s at record highs so go with the trend. T-notes look lower much of the rest of this week.Continue reading

T-notes looking lower

FOR TUESDAY: (8/28) GDP is on Wednesday and we’re always worried about these holiday weeks as the trade will start leaving by Wednesday and nothing will happen until Sept. 4. The dollar downtrend is more solid, as is gold, and you can’t sell the stock market when it’s at record highs so go with the trend. T-notes look lower much of the rest of this week.Continue reading