FOR MONDAY: (9/17) We have stocks lower on Sunday night and Monday, and would expect that there would at least be some pullback from the hurricane. May be difficult to trade and we’ll have to see how things settle out on Monday. You may have to get something short near the open of Sunday night. Trump plans to announce new tariffs on up to $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Monday in a move that will prompt an immediate retaliation from China, and may lead to a sharply lower futures open on Sunday night.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (9/17) Fifteen-point intraday pullback may have been enough to be complete. Sunday cycles are negative and hard to imagine new target of 2932 coming in right away and will be hard to take out 2918. We’re open to selling near the open given news over the weekend about China. We had thought that the cash gap at 2893 would get filled on Monday and allow futures back to 2898-2900. That’s the most likely scenario for Sunday night but if the market can’t take out 2893-5 quickly, we assume they will rebound the market. Some of the more difficult cycles of the week are present into Wednesday but shorts do not work very long.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower Monday; higher into Sept. 18.