Weaker prices next week
FOR FRIDAY: (8/19) Possible week-end profit-taking will set in but investment bankers aren’t giving up on buying dips no matter how close the market gets to 2200 on the S & P. We still have a bias toward weaker prices into next week and there is a reliable cycle after August 25 that should finally tire the market even if it holds up a few more days. Not expecting a whole lot to do for Friday.
Grain cylces may be inverting
FOR FRIDAY: (8/19) We went into the week with a bias for a retracement into the end of the week and we could easily get profit taking. Still, cycles may be inverting and if the grains hold up into Sunday, they may start retracing early next week. Cattle will do short-covering before Cattle on Feed, and hogs have no risk/reward until we get a 3-wave rally that may not come in.
Four major cycles hitting over the weekend
FOR MONDAY: (8/15) Four major cycles hitting over the weekend may create more volatility and news for Sunday/Monday than usual. Favoring higher dollars into Wednesday and lower metals and higher stocks and lower oil. X-factor is whether Russia/Ukraine tensions increase. For now, enjoy the summer weekend. Volatility cycles are peaking now but may not decrease until after Wednesday.
Volatile cycles for Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (7/12) Cycles may turn more volatile on Tuesday with Tuesday/Wednesday having the best chance for lower stocks–and if we don’t get anything or much, we’ll know how strong this market is and we shouldn’t fight the trend or the primary 6-week cycle higher.
Treasury auction not going well at the moment and that may keep us from nibbling on longs. We do like long gold the rest of the week and short crude and long dollars the rest of the week.
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