Category: Uncategorized

FOR MONDAY: (6/4) Political and economic stresses make it hard to take positions home. We wonder when Deutsche Bank will bite the dust and really destroy Europe. In the meantime, stocks still look higher into next week so the short-term traders will continue to play.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/11) The market is saved by Facebook and X–and who cares about Russia and Syria when the tension about FB ease? Upward momentum likely to continue for US stocks but we‘ll find it hard to chase.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (1/12) We forget that we have a holiday weekend coming up and even though there’s a lot of trading in Europe, trading will be muted on Monday. We’re going to get short crude and gold, as we see trending situations now until Jan. 24. Not clear on the dollar but will wait for the long weekend to take a position.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (1/12) The push above 2760 reminds us why we should never rush to short this market. Key resistance up to 2793.25 now. We had thought that Friday was the best day be lower but will it be much or matter? Continued failing momentum suggests they will take it down the 70 points but exhaust us in the process. We had thought that the start of the move lower is more likely tonight or Friday.
NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up. We exited with nice profits on our ETF position.
SHORT-TERM: (1/05) Thinking that the market is lower Jan. 12 and into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It does then seem like a 3-week correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower into Jan. 12; lower into Jan. 19.

FOR TUESDAY: (12/26) We have a larger big picture guide for the next week. Very difficult to go into the weekend with a position, as there are often reversals with these holidays and conditions are thin and exaggerated. Three-day weekends are notorious for reversals and we always worry about weekend terrorism over Christmas, and those cycles are likely still through next week. Will advise Tuesday about plays next week but if we get a bunch of gaps and no completed patterns, then it will be difficult to play.Continue reading

(3/24) We can be short grains into Sunday at the latest and expect that they will rubber-band bounce next week. Will have to move stops down over the weekend. Cattle waiting on COF report and failed to break much on Thursday but cycles into Monday suggest a strong downward reaction. Cycles are very violent the next few sessions so trade with care.Continue reading

SHORT-TERM: (12/12) Five waves up from the 2179 Italy vote is complete and a 34-point pullback would have to hold 2130 on March futures. That still would require a new high by Dec. 22 toward 2296 with additional resistance at 2330. It would seem that 5 waves up from the election low would be complete at 2330 and set up larger fall. That would be about 110 points to 2220 on the S & P and could take a few months, which we need to confirm in the cycles. That suggests that much of the current rally will be over soon.

OVERALL: (12/12) Daily cash charts starting to project 2300 and weekly charts 2335. We have a bias for higher prices from FOMC into Dec. 22 but we aren’t clear how long it will take to do the last push up to 2330. It could be as late as Jan. 7 but possibly as soon as Dec. 26-27 and that Jan. 7 would be a secondary high. The larger issue is that probably a 110-point correction is needed to S & P 2220 into the winter. That might happen from the Feb. high if the market just keeps galloping to the 2420 area. Some cycle highs dominate into the week of Feb. 6 if there are no major hiccups in world politics, with cycle lows dominating into Feb. 27. March is often seasonally lower and we often see a cycle low into late March and at this point that might be March 24. Weekly chart highs dominate into mid-June with a secondary high into early August. Market seems in trouble into the 2nd week of October. We need to complete our data for 2017 and will report in the next issue.

WEEKLY CHART: (12/12) Looking out into 2017, the chances of one more new high are stronger than a crash or a meltdown. In fact one article noted that Central Bankers have enough money to keep the QE game going for another 4 years! The issue now is whether they will pull the plug on free money to get Trump out of power and cause his ruin. That seems to be the case. The proportions of the weekly and monthly charts from the 2009 low suggest that the whole move up won’t be complete until 2018 around at least 2409, with the more bearish pattern suggesting a new high to at least 2330 into early January. We still have to see how world tensions settle out over Christmas but somehow QE remains the only game in town that works. There may be pockets of disturbances in places but it takes a long time for an ocean liner like the NYSE to change course and go in another direction, and it won’t happen that easily and quickly.

WEEKLY CHART THOUGHTS: (12/12) Monthly charts are more complete toward 2420 or 2520 on cash as the market is probably doing a 5-wave rally up from the 2009 low, and the 4th-wave bottomed in the 1800 region. The 12-year cycle is kicked in August 11, 2016-Sept. 11, 2017 and its analogue year for 2004-5 was positive for the S & P.

CYCLES SYNTHESIS: Higher into Dec. 22; higher into Dec. 26; profit-taking into Jan. 2; higher into Jan 5; profit-taking into Jan. 11; higher into Jan. 17-18.

MAJOR DATES : Dec. 26-7; Jan. 7; Feb 6-10 (high); Feb. 27 (low); March 24 (low); May 12 (high); May 29 (low); June 20-21 (low): August 9; Oct. 11 (low.

http://https://youtu.be/iCicSIsRuZM

FOR FRIDAY: (8/19) Possible week-end profit-taking will set in but investment bankers aren’t giving up on buying dips no matter how close the market gets to 2200 on the S & P. We still have a bias toward weaker prices into next week and there is a reliable cycle after August 25 that should finally tire the market even if it holds up a few more days. Not expecting a whole lot to do for Friday.

FOR FRIDAY: (8/19) We went into the week with a bias for a retracement into the end of the week and we could easily get profit taking. Still, cycles may be inverting and if the grains hold up into Sunday, they may start retracing early next week. Cattle will do short-covering before Cattle on Feed, and hogs have no risk/reward until we get a 3-wave rally that may not come in.