FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/15) We would sell any minor bounces in grains the next day as we see pressure into March 26-27. Cattle and hog cycles are very weak and bearish also starting March 20-30 and we’ll have to load up on shorts on hedges on bounces. May be too late without a bounce there.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July corn shorts from 372.50 with a 379.50 stop.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/15) We sold corn on Sunday night at 372.50 and are projecting 366.00, which almost came in. Will add more on a bounce. In the end we favor shorts into at least March 26-27 but not clear if the market will break 360 and fall to 350. This next week or two is a key week for a break so we’ll favor shorts.
SHORT-TERM (3/13) Daily stochastics have crossed over issuing a sell signal. Pullbacks could easily to go key weekly chart support at 350-1 and if that goes, 336. Daily chart patterns suggest 321 into late April and early May if South American exports weigh on the market. Weekly chart support for May corn is key at 346.50. Cycle lows dominate into March 26-27. Usually the weeks before the March 31 USDA report are choppy. The market does seem to recover into the USDA report into mid-April but the late winter and early spring trade is still boring. We’ve seen so many conflicting weather forecasts for the spring that we’re not sure what to think. Given worldwide abnormalities this winter, some growing areas are likely to get impacted this year and support higher prices. Our own weather work had seen dry prices in June. Some forecasts are calling for a colder summer than normal, which is not a supportive factor. The chance for higher prices in June is pretty strong and we can probably do a typical hedge or cash sale there. We’re watching mid-June for now.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into March 15; higher into March 17; lower into March 20-21.