(3/14) Everything centers around Wednesday with the Dutch election, the FOMC rate hike (no biggie), the debt ceiling expiration and five other reports. Should be interesting. For now we can get positioned in the direction we expect things to go but these markets are always full of surprises. Keeps life interesting.

TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.

S&P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (3/14) Three waves up projects 2381.25. Minor cycles seem more challenging on Tuesday. Tight ranges may stall at 2372.50 and support at 2361.50 may hold. Wondering if it will take until Wednesday to reach to 2381.25. Much above 2385 and we might get more bullish It still has a chance later in the day but we might get out of it quickly if the market can’t fall sharply the next few days.

OVERALL: While daily stochastics have issue a sell signal, it is possible that all we saw last week was a 4th-wave low and two more highs are needed. The time window for this is short as past March 20 we think the market is more vulnerable. This week’s low was enough to satisfy that it was a minor 4th-wave pullback and that new highs can come into next week but not a definite. If the market had fallen a bit more in 5 waves we could sell a 3-wave bounce to 2381 and feel clear on where the market is but that isn’t the case. The debt ceiling crisis starting March 15 may be a coming negative. We had thought a secondary high next week so if there is a sharp fall it may start the week of March 20.

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