FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/8) The 29-day cycle is higher on Wednesday and some grains look higher on Thursday although beans are more iffy for Thursday’s report. Meats didn’t break hard enough on Tuesday and we’ll need to exit.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July bean longs from 1034 with a 1028.50 stop. Take partial profit at 1046.50.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/8) We did get long and beans completed 3 waves down. The tight stop is necessary because beans shouldn’t take out 1030 or there’s trouble. We may not hold beyond Thursday’s announcement but for now we will be long Wednesday and Wednesday night and see where the market recovers to. Most likely bearish recovery pattern is to 1046.50 and 1052 and we’ll probably be happy to exit there.
FUNDAMENTALS: (2/27) Counter-seasonal rallies over winter sometimes are a good thing in the soybean market, putting futures on a bullish trajectory to keep rising into spring and early summer. But rallies that aren’t built on a firm foundation can cause trouble too. That’s one of the risks in the soybean market that may play out into March as the focus shifts from old crop to new. So far, old crop futures are holding to a bullish trajectory of higher highs and higher lows. If the pattern holds it portends more gains into the start of the growing season.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering Wednesday/Thursday.
