FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/8) Confirmation of a top in stocks may finally have people heading for the exit after huge profits but we don’t see a major spill. Weird Wally Wednesday for stocks will have more longs exiting and rolling to June by late Thursday. Given a congestive week, we could see all the markets reverse a bit and drive us crazy.


S&P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/8) Weak close and 2376 never came out where we had moved stops down to on remaining shorts. We are open to seeing the pattern completion to the 2362.50-2363.50 region come in. The extended target isn’t out of the question at 2350. We have Weird Wall Wednesday where funds start dumping longs to rollover to the June contract and that usually completes by late Thursday. That may add some additional pressure. Cycles are mixed enough but there may be enough anxiety and weird energy for lower prices at least the first few hours of trading.

NEAR TERM: Enough of a close now that everyone knows the market has topped and we can target 2321 on cash. Seasonally the market is often lower the 2nd half of March. The 2520 projection for May is very clearly in the patterns now and wondering if it will happen. We see no point in top-picking.

OVERALL: (2/15) Still thinking an early April low and then still new highs this year and not thinking crash this year to 2520 and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% If things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse. Market seems lower from mid-May into late June and probably into July.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Congestive into Thursday; higher Friday; higher into March 13-14.

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