FOR FRIDAY: (2/3) Grain cycles look weak on Friday but we’re hoping that SA weather will keep them sideways and that a final high will come in over the weekend for better sales. Cattle still look higher one more day and hogs lower on Friday.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/3) Not much to add to this morning, as support is at 1027.50 and still could reach up to 1044-5 or 1048. Potential flooding again in Argentina this weekend may keep the market bid until the extent of that event is known. More important for corn. Will leave it alone today. Brazil is trying to harvest its soybeans, but this week’s rain may slow that process. Drier conditions are forecast next week. Brazil got an early start to this year’s harvest, which was credited for the big January export sales the government reported on Wednesday.
OVERALL: We won’t give up on 1100-1120 but it may not come for a while into March and if beans do not implode more drastically.
WEEKLY CHART: (2/2) Three waves up projects 1120 but wondering if it has a chance now without new weather or whether it will happen as early as early March. Major weekly chart resistance is at 1157 but it would take another weather crisis to get it higher. Selling 90% of old crop in the 1100-1120 region makes sense given a huge acreage coming. While we see problems in June with this market, any trade problems with China could lead to a plunge to 920. The market has gotten ahead of itself with funds jumping on flooding in SA but somehow Mother Nature finds a way to rebalance. Cycles are weak in February. Beans will pull back to at least 1000-992 into late February.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Feb. 6; sideways/higher into Feb. 9.
