FOR THURSDAY: (6/22) We would continue to expect grain weakness but keep an eye on European weather and how much rain hits the Delta in case short-covering comes out of nowhere. Short-covering likely by Friday before the COF report also.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July bean shorts from 934 and 931 with a 946 stop. Take partials at 909.50.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/22) Rain amounts and breadth of coverage the next few days will be at the forefront of traders’ minds. The deep break below 928 now opens up much deeper prices to 908.50 where you can take partial profits, with bounces probably not taking out 922. We should get to 895 or 890 if weather cooperates and it looks like it will. Working on potential July bounces. Not thinking that Gulf rains will impact crops too much but sometimes flooding can be a problem so take partial profits.
OVERALL: Daily chart suggesting 895 and if acreage increases, it’s possible that lower prices to 837.50 or 850 will come. Still, for now, they may run it up to 962 and it may be a gift for hedgers and cash sellers.
WEEKLY CHART: Given that the market is close to 895, key support, we wonder if a breakdown to 837 or 850 is likely before it’s done when hedging pressure enters.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Thursday/Friday.
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