(6/22) Crude is still falling apart and everyone has to be a bit nervous with US and Russian planes buzzing each other in a show of ego. We have to really be concerned about our leadership and military when these kinds of games happen. On the bright side, there’s an olive branch from North Korea that will probably be stepped on by the US and cycles for July don’t look great for their leader. Stocks should still be sold into Sunday night but may recover next week. We’re not seeing any signs of a meltdown.

SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.

S&P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (6/22) S & P hit 2428.75 overnight and NQ futures hit 5699 and those are very key support areas and NQ bounced all the way back to 5796, close to the 5800 region that we noted this morning. Thursday looks higher but not sure 2440-43 will come out and maybe the worst downside is 2409.50 into Sunday. Next week looks friendlier than we had thought so we may only have Friday and Sunday to fall. Doubt that 2400 will come out.

OVERALL: We ran cycles through August and they’re mixed. We’re not thinking that the market will fall apart dramatically in July, but we’re skeptical that there‘s enough time and room for 2520 to come in this summer before things get complicated in August-October. The market does seem like it will hold up into July 5, retrace into mid-July and probably hold up into July 25. Seeing lots of congestive action and it may not fall apart until after August 5.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into June 25; recovering into June 28-29; lower into June 30.

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