FOR THURSDAY: (5/25) We had a bias toward higher grains on Thursday and they usually are not higher this day. Cattle in transition and have to leave it alone and if you want to gamble on a weak reaction to the report for Friday, get in on Friday. Hogs not done until 8290-8300 comes in.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/25) Wanting to take profits at 422.75 on partials. (sorry for a typo last night). Break to 428 means we’re on the right side of this market. First support at 422 and then 416.50. Market may bounce on Thursday but I think we can be short into the weekend. While the weather remains troublesome for winter wheat, with more rain forecast later this week for the Plains, USDA said the crop improved 1 point to 52% good/excellent last week, contrary to forecasts for a small slippage in ratings. However, Illinois wheat lost ground with USDA rating it 44% good/excellent compared with 52% the prior week.
OVERALL: Seasonal pressure is always on winter wheat into late May and it can sometimes extend into mid-June. Three waves down on the weekly continuation chart project 3.99 and the USDA has given 3.85 as the lower end for where prices may go and they figure the market will not get above 465. Hard for us to see wheat getting above 438-440 again and given the downside potential to 399 or 385 on July wheat, we have to continue to sell rallies. First place July wheat will fall is 418 and then 410-2.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into May 26; May 29-31 low.