FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/24) We looked closely at cycles this week and not seeing anything to knock stocks down, and the trade is blowing off the latest scandal rumors and is more interested in increasing end of the month profits. Dollar looks lower into Wednesday/Thursday and gold and silver higher and oil looks higher into June 3, and there is enough of a breakout that we can probably buy dips.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/24) Hard to chase the market near all-time highs. Resistance is major at 2402.50 and 2404.50 and much above 2407 and we’ll see a breakout. Support is at 2394 and 2392 for day-traders. We still have a bias to be buying this market the next few days. Resistance at 2402-2404 will be major and a breakout to 2417 this week could easily happen. Taking out 2379-80 on any surprises wouldn’t be a good sign but not likely. Always hard to chase markets near key resistance. There are some patterns that would look good if we did fall to 2378-79 first before going higher.
OVERALL: Bears who missed last Wednesday’s fall have to remember that funds and cheap money will come to the rescue—because that’s what they do. We feel that chills and spills may be happening from mid-June into October but we usually get complicated topping energy in late May and early June. We did get technical sell signals on Wednesday but that doesn’t mean the market has to go straight down right away again. We had thought about early June as a secondary high. We’re not quite ready to go for new highs but there are some patterns that can be read that way and nothing about this market will surprise us. So I think we have to forget about May 17 fall and see what develops on recoveries into next week.
LONGER TERM: (4/26) Expecting that 2150 is the most likely first downward target into September/October if the market can close below 2300. May not get the sell signal until June.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Wednesday and probably Thursday.
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