OR FRIDAY: (2/24) Trade waiting on Cattle on Feed report. We’re seeing lower grains for 1-2 more sessions but then short-covering should develop. We’re looking to cover March hedges and did some already. Usually by March 1st, grains are a strong seasonal buy and we’ll use weakness soon to buy the stronger July contract.
MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/24) Support is at 362.50 and 358.50. Market looks lower on Friday and probably Sunday and then month-end short-covering could start by early Monday. We’re willing to hold a few more sessions but will continue to tighten stops. Continuation chart pattern completed the minimum movement lower at 366 but more seems to be coming on the March contract. Usually there’s a bit movement higher around March 1st so we’ll have to buy July corn early next week on the rollover.
WEEKLY CHART: (2/10) Taking out the weekly chart trendline at 351 will be important to allow for something more dramatic to the downside and unlikely to happen with firming exports and hopes for China. At this point 358 on March corn will hold. With 2.3 billion bushels likely leftover Sept. 1 from the huge 2016 crop, it’s hard to forecast a big rally without weather. But July futures appears to be adopting the pattern seen in yields of rising prices, and December is following the path normally seen to post gains into March/April. Fundamental value could get up to $4.20 to $4.55. The bottom end of the range could come in by April but we will need weather problems in June—and they are coming to get up to 4.50.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Friday; bottoming/higher Monday into Tuesday.
