(2/24) Will the trade wait for Trump’s address to Congress on Monday to blast off again? There is enough of a chance for a weird event on Sunday night or early Monday that it probably doesn’t make a lot of sense to take anything home over the weekend. Earthquake and volcanic cycles are very strong into Tuesday/Wednesday and we wonder if the dam in CA has a chance of breaking over the weekend. If something bizarre is going to happen, it stands a good chance of happening over the weekend. If we get a big move lower on Sunday night to complete patterns, the trade will buy it and take it to new highs.

TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.

S&P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (2/24) The 2353 region held. Chances are that’s it for pullbacks before 2370-75 comes in and eventually 2393 on cash and 2391 on futures next week. We have a bias toward day-trade buys on Friday but aren’t in a rush to take anything home. If 2348 can come out then maybe the deeper pullback to 2332 could manifest but that would happen on Sunday if something weird happens. In any case, we still have a bias toward higher prices. If we do get a gap lower on Sunday, it would set up a buy for the next high into next week.

OVERALL: (2/15) We had an 80-100 point pullback in March into early April but will that be from 2393 on cash now. Not that far away now. Still thinking an early April low and then new highs this year still and not thinking crash this year and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% of things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways to higher Friday; volatile Sunday; higher Monday; retracing Feb. 28.

Recommended Posts