FOR MONDAY: (12/19) It seems that the peak of the arctic vortex is on Sunday and it if there is weather trade going on in the meats it may peak by early Monday and run out of steam and pullback. Meats also seem lower after Christmas. Grains may hold up a few more days and if see higher numbers to sell, we will have to start putting on short-term hedging and spec positions.
MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/19) The bullish pattern would project a pattern completion at 429 the next few days and set up a sale. Any bearish weather and the market could tank to 399.50-398.50. We’re running out of time for this market to go up much more and are OK selling into the end of the year if we can do so from better prices. Will be patient and pick our spot this week.
WEEKLY CHART: Wheat has been a very dull affair and would seem that at best March wheat might move back toward the 450 region into early January. Seasonally the market often tops out by the January USDA report and turns lower into late February. The Farmer’s Almanac forecast for a dry and mild winter may be supportive to July wheat, which will easily get up to 488-491 if not 509. We can favor longs for at least a month from secondary lows into Dec. 1 and hold at least into the Jan. USDA report.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Dec. 21; lower into Dec. 23; lower into Dec. 31.
