FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/22) Usually we can count on hog bounces on Wednesday and if they are weak, we’re probably ok selling. Cattle look lower a few days. We have had a bias for lower grains into Wednesday/Thursday and not sure the USDA outlook report will mean that much, although we should consider it as important as a quarterly report. No risk/reward for selling grains without a bounce. Cycles look rather weak here.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/22) Beans failed to bounce enough to 1048 to get a good risk/reward and only hit 1044.50. 1025 will come in quickly and then 1015. Cycles are weak the next few days and not sure we‘ll have a good place to sell. If you really want to get short, you may be stuck with 1029-1029.50 with a better risk/reward in the 1034-5 region.
OVERALL Breakdown under 1038 opens up Pandora ’s Box before 5 waves down projects 1014.
WEEKLY CHART: (2/2) Selling 90% of old crop in the 1100-1120 region makes sense given a huge acreage coming. While we see problems in June with this market, any trade problems with China could lead to a plunge to 920. We wonder now if beans will go back to 1000-992 into late Feb. given weak cycles.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally lower into Feb. 23; recovering Feb. 26.
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