(2/22) FOMC minutes is the big report on Wednesday and not sure the market cares too much about it or a hawkish bent. Cycles are a bit more volatile the next few days so we’ll have to see what manifests; the weekend congestion should be over and followed by new movement.


S&P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/22) Cash resistance is at 2369. Could be that only a 13-point pullback would happen from there. Larger cash pattern is more complete at 2396. Futures are about 2-4 under cash. We think that by March 1st the market will complete. At best, we could get a 33-point pullback on futures but it could happen from higher levels like 2370. Wednesday and Thursday look the most vulnerable this week. Shorts do not work. Will the FOMC minutes trigger something on Wednesday?

NEAR TERM: Minimum pullback at this point in the move only has to be 13 points. At this point, the max. 34-point pullback would come from Wednesday high on cash at 2369. I suspect we’ll see a max of 2333 on futures by Thursday. No point in shorts until early March and closer to 2400.

OVERALL: (2/15) We had an 80-100 point pullback in March into early April but will that be from 2400-2420? Not that far away now. Still thinking an early April low and then new highs this year still and not thinking crash this year and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% of things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Thursday.

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