FOR MONDAY: (10/16) Not sure if harvest pressure will mean much but markets are oversold for grains but still look higher a few more days. Key numbers of 1007 for Nov. beans and 444 for Dec. Chicago wheat are close and corn will go for the ride. We should be selling these rallies on wheat and be patient with beans but will have to be more aggressive by Tuesday in terms of selling. New research on cattle suggests lower prices into Thursday now and hogs may hold up into then.
DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (10/16) While we favor higher prices to 355 into at least Tuesday, we see no point in top-picking. Three waves up could extend to 360. Cycles are volatile but thinking the market will hold up into at least Monday night and Tuesday.
WASDE: (10/12) U.S. corn production is also forecast higher, up 96 million bushels from September for a total of 14.280 billion bushels. Supply and use changes essentially offset, with U.S. corn ending stocks up 5 million bushels from a month ago. Global corn stocks are down 1.5 million from a month ago, to 201.0 million.
OVERALL: The most bullish case for corn would allow a 3 wave rally up to 374-6 but that’s expecting too much. Eventually harvest pressure will do this market in as seasonal lows come in Thanksgiving. Cycles are higher much of next week and the daily chart patterns could go back up to 355-60 before the market turns lower again. We should get out on any harvest pressure over the weekend rather than ride this market up for a week with a drawdown.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally higher into Tuesday. Lower into Thursday.
