FOR MONDAY: (10/16) Stock market is tiring and there are a number of larger cycle changes that started Friday that will continue into the coming weeks that may give this market pause to go much higher. We’re not into top-picking stocks but will be alert. Not sure people want to go home long again before North Korea red letter day on Oct. 18. We found a bunch of minor cycle inversions and end of the week profit-taking may set in for sideways congestion anyway. New saber-rattling with Iran is of course something else we don’t need on top of North Korea flak. Cycles get more intense the next few weeks for confrontation. We also ran two new cycles for Wednesday/Thursday and they’re giving us more information on the coming week.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (10/16) Market looks like it is doing a distribution top but needs to take out 2538 to have a minor breakdown. It is not confirmed on NQ. We found a new cycle low into Wednesday so Monday seems to be the last day for this market to go up. Tight ranges continue to point toward this market tiring and it might not make the upper numbers for an ideal sale. Market up toward the upper end of the range and made new highs toward key resistance at 2554-55. There are a lot of cycle turns over the weekend but no amount of saber-rattling seems to upset this market. Computer models continue to point toward key resistance up to 2660-62 but now extends to 2670. NQ is about 24 points from key resistance. We are still willing to get short at key number and key patterns and there are a lot of cycle changes over the weekend.
Until 2538 come out, we’re just waiting. The most bullish pattern would allow at 20-point congestion triangle to happen between 2540-2560 and then new highs. A 30-point break is also very possible but waiting for much more may be too much.
Watch NQ 6122 for a pattern completion and there is money to be made on the upside there for the brave.
NEAR TERM: Thinking that the market will start coming off once 2562 comes and be in trouble until about Nov. 6. I suspect we’ll have to wait until the last minute for sales. Still, we can only count on a 30-point pullback.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Sunday; higher Monday; lower into Wednesday.