FOR THURSDAY: (7/13) USDA days can be major changes of trend on the month. There is a conflict between hot and dry setting up into pollination and almost failing tecnnicals. Beans didn’t fail enough yet. I think this was the shake-out move and one divergent high can come but hard to hold grains this late in the season and not get killed. Use strength to stay protected with put options and futures may come through. Thursdays are not kind to grains usually and cycles are mixed into Friday. Running out of time.
NOV. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold Nov. bean longs from 1031.25 with a 1017 stop. Take partial profits at 1055.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/13) Beans were stronger than corn and didn’t do any technical damage. Much under 1018 and we would be concerned. We’ll see if they can find the strength to go up into Friday. USDA left Argentina and Brazil soybean crops unchanged at 57.8 million and 114 million metric tons, respectively. It raised world production and ending stocks, with slight increases in production in the U.S. and China. World ending stocks increased larger due to an increase in ending stocks the previous year that will be this year’s beginning stocks.
WEEKLY CHART: Weekly chart hedge area near 1100-1096.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Thursday; higher Friday; recovering July 17.
