FOR MONDAY: (2/6) Counting on the weather to give grains and meats one more push up on Monday and it has enough of a chance to wait for. Still, weather is fickle so be prepared Sunday night if it doesn’t look good and if you have urgent needs.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/6) Beans failed at the key 1044 region and came off sharply. Trade is betting on the better forecast for less rain in SA. Without another push up on Monday, we won’t have any risk/reward. At best a miracle rally might go back to 1054 but any bad news would lead to a quick push to 1005. Right in the middle so nothing to do.
OVERALL: We won’t give up on 1100-1120 but it may not come for a while into March and if beans don’t implode more drastically.
WEEKLY CHART: (2/2) Three waves up projects 1120 but wondering if it has a chance now without new weather or whether it will happen as early as early March. Major weekly chart resistance is at 1157 but it would take another weather crisis to get it higher. Selling 90% of old crop in the 1100-1120 region makes sense given a huge acreage coming. While we see problems in June with this market, any trade problems with China could lead to a plunge to 920. The market has gotten ahead of itself with funds jumping on flooding in SA but somehow Mother Nature finds a way to rebalance. Cycles are weak in February. Beans will pull back to at least 1000-992 into late February.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Feb. 6; sideways/higher into Feb. 9.
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