FOR TUESDAY: (12/20) So Trump is official per the Electoral College and all the media drama meant nothing but more ratings. Isn’t election news getting a bit tiring folks? We should get the resumption of the Christmas rally if anyone is left to play. Holiday energy is very sluggish and should get abysmal by the end of the week and unfortunately terrorist cycles increase into Christmas and we have had 3 major incidents today. The news will probably get uglier. Riot cycles are high but it seems that places like Venezuela where hyper-inflation is happening and maybe Italy and Greece are the best possible places before the Woman’s March on Washington hits. It’s not going to be a dull and news-less holiday or January.Continue reading
Grains have a good chance for a 2-day bounce
OR TUESDAY: (12/20) Grains have a good chance for a 2-day bounce here and they are a bit oversold and we’ll use rallies to get short into the end of the week. Grains look lower the last week of the year. Patterns on cattle look complete with slight new highs and yet given the momentum, we’re reluctant to top-pick without a reversal.Continue reading
Stocks should rally this week
FINANCIAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR MONDAY: (12/19) The chance for the Electoral College to trump Trump and send a decision to the House on Monday seems rather unlikely. Still, the markets may remain quiet until the all-clear signal is out. More disturbing are many other news items including the Chinese capturing a US drone submarine, more saber-rattling by Obama and even the FBI concurring with the CIA around evidence about hacking despite the fact Wikileaks denies the Russians were the source. What no one is doing is denying is the content of the hacked emails showing dirty tricks to win the Democratic candidacy and the pay-for-play Clinton foundation doings. What is also implied by the press is that the Russians changed the results of the election by hacking into databases around the US which was not possible as they were offline. So more spin. We don’t think it will be over until the Inauguration. We do see that stocks should rally this week and bonds recover and the dollar turn lower and gold turn higher. It’s possible that some final flourish could complete patterns that have not quite come in on the dollar and silver – but maybe they don’t have to.
Meats may peak by early Monday
FOR MONDAY: (12/19) It seems that the peak of the arctic vortex is on Sunday and it if there is weather trade going on in the meats it may peak by early Monday and run out of steam and pullback. Meats also seem lower after Christmas. Grains may hold up a few more days and if see higher numbers to sell, we will have to start putting on short-term hedging and spec positions.Continue reading
T-notes would look better with one more new low
FOR FRIDAY: (12/16) One would think that the markets may rest after this week’s excitement. We’re open to the dollar still being up a bit more and that might push gold down a bit. Stocks are dealing with quadruple witch and t-notes would look better with one more new low. Markets may be wondering if there will be any Electoral College fireworks.Continue reading
Soybeans showing strength on demand, weather
FOR FRIDAY: (12/16) We’re open to seeing grains hold up 1-3 more days before end of the year selling is likely to hit. Soybeans were higher Thursday because of good demand and hot, dry weather in Argentina. DTN says that’s to be taken seriously with demand has high as it is. Last week’s soybean export sales and shipments were bullish, and total exports running 24 percent more than a year ago. China keeps buying, with the latest sale of 132,000 metric tons supportive to the market. Last week’s corn export sales and shipments were neutral, but corn prices at the U.S. Gulf roughly 50 cents cheaper than at Brazil’s ports, the active export pace should continue well into early 2017. Corn’s main bearish concern is the size of South America’s next harvest.Continue reading
MARCH and CASH S & P 500 FUTURES OUTLOOK by Barry Rosen
SHORT-TERM: (12/12) Five waves up from the 2179 Italy vote is complete and a 34-point pullback would have to hold 2130 on March futures. That still would require a new high by Dec. 22 toward 2296 with additional resistance at 2330. It would seem that 5 waves up from the election low would be complete at 2330 and set up larger fall. That would be about 110 points to 2220 on the S & P and could take a few months, which we need to confirm in the cycles. That suggests that much of the current rally will be over soon.
OVERALL: (12/12) Daily cash charts starting to project 2300 and weekly charts 2335. We have a bias for higher prices from FOMC into Dec. 22 but we aren’t clear how long it will take to do the last push up to 2330. It could be as late as Jan. 7 but possibly as soon as Dec. 26-27 and that Jan. 7 would be a secondary high. The larger issue is that probably a 110-point correction is needed to S & P 2220 into the winter. That might happen from the Feb. high if the market just keeps galloping to the 2420 area. Some cycle highs dominate into the week of Feb. 6 if there are no major hiccups in world politics, with cycle lows dominating into Feb. 27. March is often seasonally lower and we often see a cycle low into late March and at this point that might be March 24. Weekly chart highs dominate into mid-June with a secondary high into early August. Market seems in trouble into the 2nd week of October. We need to complete our data for 2017 and will report in the next issue.
WEEKLY CHART: (12/12) Looking out into 2017, the chances of one more new high are stronger than a crash or a meltdown. In fact one article noted that Central Bankers have enough money to keep the QE game going for another 4 years! The issue now is whether they will pull the plug on free money to get Trump out of power and cause his ruin. That seems to be the case. The proportions of the weekly and monthly charts from the 2009 low suggest that the whole move up won’t be complete until 2018 around at least 2409, with the more bearish pattern suggesting a new high to at least 2330 into early January. We still have to see how world tensions settle out over Christmas but somehow QE remains the only game in town that works. There may be pockets of disturbances in places but it takes a long time for an ocean liner like the NYSE to change course and go in another direction, and it won’t happen that easily and quickly.
WEEKLY CHART THOUGHTS: (12/12) Monthly charts are more complete toward 2420 or 2520 on cash as the market is probably doing a 5-wave rally up from the 2009 low, and the 4th-wave bottomed in the 1800 region. The 12-year cycle is kicked in August 11, 2016-Sept. 11, 2017 and its analogue year for 2004-5 was positive for the S & P.
CYCLES SYNTHESIS: Higher into Dec. 22; higher into Dec. 26; profit-taking into Jan. 2; higher into Jan 5; profit-taking into Jan. 11; higher into Jan. 17-18.
MAJOR DATES : Dec. 26-7; Jan. 7; Feb 6-10 (high); Feb. 27 (low); March 24 (low); May 12 (high); May 29 (low); June 20-21 (low): August 9; Oct. 11 (low.
Stocks still need to congest a bit lower
FOR THURSDAY: (12/15) Bank of England results will be by morning and no rate hike there will not be helpful for US/GBP cross rates. Stocks still need to congest a bit lower before the next buy sets up. Gold and the dollar could be done very quickly and we could be setting up for end-of-the-year congestion and waiting on the Electoral College and the Inauguration.Continue reading
Grain to hold up into Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (12/15) Grains should hold up into Thursday or Friday but may not come down until after Dec. 20-21. For now we have to expect a lot of sideways trade and some bidding until 371 on March corn and 1070 on Jan. beans comes in. Cattle could be higher the rest of the week and hogs sickly and haven’t fallen apart during the last few days of weakness.Continue reading
Patterns looking temporarily complete
FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/14) Another FOMC day. This one is a done deal but will we get a lot of sell-the-fact and buy-the-fact energy? Probably. So many patterns seem temporarily complete. In the end we don’t like these days because they’re still a bit too much of a meat grinder from the computer ALGOS.Continue reading