Grains may be done to the downside by Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (12/27) Grains may be done to the downside by Tuesday and recover next week. We usually like to favor shorts into the end of the year but it may be that we get short-covering from oversold conditions into Tuesday’s low. The Dec. 1 cattle on-feed report looked neutral to a bit negative: on feed, 99%; placed in November, 115%; marketed in November, 117%. The Dec. 1 Hogs & Pigs report was a bearish surprise: total hogs, 104%; kept for breeding, 101%; kept for market, 104%.

MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/27) We took partial profits at 1001 on Friday. To get the full 985 target you would have to hold over the weekend and deal with the possibility of a shift in Brazilian weather forecasts. There is a way to manage that with trailing stops and gaps up shouldn’t be indefensible.
OVERALL: The 29-day cycles are weak the next few days and we have a bias toward lower prices into the New Year. South American weather continues to turn bearish Risk is up to 1030 so we may have to put something on.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally lower into Tuesday; recovering into Jan. 3.

Continue to look for pattern completions

FOR THURSDAY: (12/22) Holiday slop continuing as players head for the exits and markets continue to be thin. Most markets are only open a ½ day on Friday and are closed on Monday, Dec. 26. Thursday is one of the better days of the week for upward action but the trade is nervous about European terrorism as we go into the holiday. We’re not inclined to take any positions home over the long weekend in the event of a surprise and we’ll continue to look for pattern completions that often come in after thin holiday trading is over. We would expect that Tuesday may be the best trading day of next week.

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Continue to sell grain bounces

FOR THURSDAY: (12/22) Thin holiday conditions make trading difficult and we can never remember winning before Christmas as stops and big ranges seem to take everyone out so we will stay out of meats–particularly because of a 11 am COF report on Friday toward the end of the trading day. We do favor short grains and will continue to sell bounces. It’s now looking like grains may be done to the downside by Tuesday and recover next week. We usually like to favor shorts into the end of the year but it may be that we get short-covering from oversold conditions into Tuesday’s low.Continue reading

Congestion and position squaring ahead

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/21) Trade waiting on GDP on Thursday for something interesting so we may have a lot of congestion and then a lot of position squaring on Thursday. Friday is a ½ day of trading. Winter officially begins on Wednesday but temperatures are warming into Christmas for many part of the country so all the wonderful white of the past week may melt. We’re concerned that sickly holiday trading will force patterns to take their sweet time to complete and we have had to learn patience. Usually the patterns will complete if you wade through the mud of holiday trading. We have published our monthly Financial Visions report which also features Part 1 of our outlook for next year Contact us at 800-788-2796 or email support@fortucast.com if you want to take advantage of our 20% holiday discount on a subscription.Continue reading

Beans broke key levels today

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/21) Holiday doldrums are hitting already. Beans broke key levels today and we have to sell minor retracements, and the same is probably true for corn. Wheat seems too oversold and with the warm weather, we have to wonder what happens when the next arctic cold front hits. If we get bounces on cattle and hogs for a day or day and ½ we’ll be ready to be short into next week.Continue reading

Resumption of the Christmas rally likely

FOR TUESDAY: (12/20) So Trump is official per the Electoral College and all the media drama meant nothing but more ratings. Isn’t election news getting a bit tiring folks? We should get the resumption of the Christmas rally if anyone is left to play. Holiday energy is very sluggish and should get abysmal by the end of the week and unfortunately terrorist cycles increase into Christmas and we have had 3 major incidents today. The news will probably get uglier. Riot cycles are high but it seems that places like Venezuela where hyper-inflation is happening and maybe Italy and Greece are the best possible places before the Woman’s March on Washington hits. It’s not going to be a dull and news-less holiday or January.Continue reading

Grains have a good chance for a 2-day bounce

OR TUESDAY: (12/20) Grains have a good chance for a 2-day bounce here and they are a bit oversold and we’ll use rallies to get short into the end of the week. Grains look lower the last week of the year. Patterns on cattle look complete with slight new highs and yet given the momentum, we’re reluctant to top-pick without a reversal.Continue reading

Stocks should rally this week

FINANCIAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR MONDAY: (12/19) The chance for the Electoral College to trump Trump and send a decision to the House on Monday seems rather unlikely. Still, the markets may remain quiet until the all-clear signal is out. More disturbing are many other news items including the Chinese capturing a US drone submarine, more saber-rattling by Obama and even the FBI concurring with the CIA around evidence about hacking despite the fact Wikileaks denies the Russians were the source. What no one is doing is denying is the content of the hacked emails showing dirty tricks to win the Democratic candidacy and the pay-for-play Clinton foundation doings. What is also implied by the press is that the Russians changed the results of the election by hacking into databases around the US which was not possible as they were offline. So more spin. We don’t think it will be over until the Inauguration. We do see that stocks should rally this week and bonds recover and the dollar turn lower and gold turn higher. It’s possible that some final flourish could complete patterns that have not quite come in on the dollar and silver – but maybe they don’t have to.

Meats may peak by early Monday

FOR MONDAY: (12/19) It seems that the peak of the arctic vortex is on Sunday and it if there is weather trade going on in the meats it may peak by early Monday and run out of steam and pullback. Meats also seem lower after Christmas. Grains may hold up a few more days and if see higher numbers to sell, we will have to start putting on short-term hedging and spec positions.Continue reading

T-notes would look better with one more new low

FOR FRIDAY: (12/16) One would think that the markets may rest after this week’s excitement. We’re open to the dollar still being up a bit more and that might push gold down a bit. Stocks are dealing with quadruple witch and t-notes would look better with one more new low. Markets may be wondering if there will be any Electoral College fireworks.Continue reading