FOR MONDAY: (10/31) Harvest should gain traction the next few days as dry weather is forecast in the Midwest. That should put huge harvest pressure on grains the next few days into the end of the month. Fund position squaring at the end of the month should also be supportive and the 14-day cycle peaks over the weekend and it has been coming in as a high and seasonals are lower in November. We would jump on shorts and hedges on Sunday night. Meats are overdone and least due for a 2-3 day pullback and in case something bigger happens, we had better be short.
Markets remain sickly, sideways
FOR FRIDAY: (10/28) Not much to add to last night as markets are sickly sideways and even though the S & P had a weak close and may be down on Friday, it’s still rather sickly. We’re already in pre-FOMC congestion before the Nov. 2nd announcement. Throw in election paralysis and political depression and we’re not seeing a lot of exciting trading. Have to consider minor swings now based on patterns and cycles until something bigger sets up.
Grains may hold up one more day
FOR FRIDAY: (10/28) Harvest should gain traction the next few days as dry weather is forecast then in the Midwest. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook adds rain to the western half of the Midwest next week along with above-normal temperatures. Ethanol futures rose along with the rest of the energy sector and the bio-fuel is now at a four-month high. Possible that grains may hold up one more day but then should turn down next week. Same for cattle and hogs. Lately Friday is a profit-taking day and all the markets are overbought so we are more inclined to favor the sell side by Monday for meats of it sets up.
Have to consider minor swings
FOR THURSDAY: (10/27) We’re already in pre-FOMC congestion before the Nov. 2nd announcement. Throw in election paralysis and political depression and we’re not seeing a lot of exciting trading. Have to consider minor swings now based on patterns and cycles until something bigger sets up.
Willing to sell more grains
FOR THURSDAY: (10/27) Grains may hold up overnight or even into the first hour of trading on Thursday but then should turn down into Sunday/Monday. We’re willing to sell more grains if we get higher and expect a volatile day and possibly a reversal. Cattle are overbought and due for a 1-2 day fall and hogs are in that shape also. Still hard to fight recent strength.
Tight ranges continue
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/26) Are we going to just deal with tight congestive ranges now before the next Fed meeting on Nov. 1-2 and the election on Nov. 8? Probably a game of 30-35 point S & P ping-pong for now and the dollar may take a break for a few days. Not much to do expect play small ranges and take quick profits.
Grains looking higher Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY (10/26) Once the rain departs late this week, forecasts indicate drier weather. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 20-Nov.3) has mostly dry weather for the Midwest next week with above-normal temperatures. The dollar was volatile, jumping to a 10-month high early against foreign currencies only to turn lower when the crops closed. Wednesday has a chance to be higher for grains. Meats may hold up another day or into early Thursday.
Stocks might hold up on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (10/24) Congestive play as usual as the trade shook off bad China data and a US cyber-attack. Without more major news, seems more likely that stocks might hold up on Monday if they are not down hard on Sunday night. We completed our monthly newsletter, Financial Visions into the Future and it is being published tonight. If you are not a subscriber, give us a call or you can buy a 1 month trial online for $29.95 at https://www.fortucast.com/sample_trial.aspx.
Weaker grain cycles this week
FOR MONDAY (10/24) Cycles turn weaker for grains this week and we would continue to sell and hedge rallies—if we get any more. If you have nothing on, you may have to go to the market Sunday in case hedge pressure hits the market hard. Cold storage report was one of the most bearish in history and cattle report was friendly. Much of the Corn Belt should be dry before storms emerge early next, focusing heaviest totals in the upper Mississippi River valley.
Weak equity cycles for Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (10/21) Cycles for Friday look weak or at best sideways for equities. Lately Friday is a throw-away day with position squaring before the weekend. Something more dramatic is possible. No major reports out except Fed Speak. Will we get new scandals over the weekend and will the press continue to ignore them? Yes. We’re moving toward a kind of Watergate Presidency if Hillary is elected and that’s not going to be good for financials. The Dems are going to have to sweep Congress if she is going to survive.