FOR THURSDAY: (11/3) Weak cycles overnight inclines us to sell and take profits quickly in the morning for the S & P. Crude looks lower into Friday and T-note higher so we’ll buy dips there. Dollar needs a 2-day bounce before it can be resold.Continue reading
Grains in trouble
FOR THURSDAY: (11/3) Grains were much weaker than we feared and even if we have a stronger night session, we still think the market is in trouble. Oil had its biggest build-up of inventories in 34 years and that is not good news for bio-fuel, and crude should easily fall to 40.00. Hogs should hold up a few more days but cattle patterns look complete with a pullback possible. Continue reading
Hogs may finish a 2-day correction
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/2) Grains turned lower today after our concerns last night and broke key levels on corn with even Nov. beans finally taking out 985. We could see grains recovering for a day before harvest pressure takes over again. Hogs may finish a 2-day correction and then a buy is setting up into Friday. Continue reading
Positive cycles on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (11/1) Usually we don’t like to be caught short on the first day of the month and cycles are positive on Tuesday and trade will sometimes buy before a dovish/no hike report on Wednesday. Otherwise we may get a boring repeat of Monday except for the Bank of Japan and their press conference overnight. Continue reading
Cattle probably in trouble rest of the week
FOR TUESDAY: (11/1) Fund buying at the first of the month may set in but grains hardly budged on Monday and we continue to be surprised how well they have held up. Cycles peak overnight and we still would expect a setback into Wednesday but this market is tricky and we can’t get too married to what we think will happen. Hogs should hold up one more day and cattle are probably in trouble the rest of the week.
Still room for more downward action
FOR MONDAY: (10/31) The FBI reopening of E-mail gate has pundits talking a Trump election means stocks down 10%. Our work has been looking for S & P 2000 into December so maybe that will be the case. We still suspect there are many more surprises coming before and after the election and the market won’t like the uncertainty. For now, stocks keep ratcheting lower and we’re inching toward the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Usually the Monday before the FOMC meeting is a low and it’s also the last day of the month this time so still room for more downward action.
Jump on shorts, hedges Sunday night
FOR MONDAY: (10/31) Harvest should gain traction the next few days as dry weather is forecast in the Midwest. That should put huge harvest pressure on grains the next few days into the end of the month. Fund position squaring at the end of the month should also be supportive and the 14-day cycle peaks over the weekend and it has been coming in as a high and seasonals are lower in November. We would jump on shorts and hedges on Sunday night. Meats are overdone and least due for a 2-3 day pullback and in case something bigger happens, we had better be short.
Markets remain sickly, sideways
FOR FRIDAY: (10/28) Not much to add to last night as markets are sickly sideways and even though the S & P had a weak close and may be down on Friday, it’s still rather sickly. We’re already in pre-FOMC congestion before the Nov. 2nd announcement. Throw in election paralysis and political depression and we’re not seeing a lot of exciting trading. Have to consider minor swings now based on patterns and cycles until something bigger sets up.
Grains may hold up one more day
FOR FRIDAY: (10/28) Harvest should gain traction the next few days as dry weather is forecast then in the Midwest. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook adds rain to the western half of the Midwest next week along with above-normal temperatures. Ethanol futures rose along with the rest of the energy sector and the bio-fuel is now at a four-month high. Possible that grains may hold up one more day but then should turn down next week. Same for cattle and hogs. Lately Friday is a profit-taking day and all the markets are overbought so we are more inclined to favor the sell side by Monday for meats of it sets up.
Have to consider minor swings
FOR THURSDAY: (10/27) We’re already in pre-FOMC congestion before the Nov. 2nd announcement. Throw in election paralysis and political depression and we’re not seeing a lot of exciting trading. Have to consider minor swings now based on patterns and cycles until something bigger sets up.