Cycle low for grains into Wednesday

FOR TUESDAY: (9/18) We found a new cycle low for grains into Wednesday that we missed in earlier research so no reason to bottom pick corn early. Beans projecting 805 now and wheat could easily get taken along for the ride. Will the trade buy the fact of the China sanctions or will they just quickly drop it another rung. No reason to but can you get into shorts?Continue reading

Stocks look lower Sunday night, Monday

FOR MONDAY: (9/17) We have stocks lower on Sunday night and Monday, and would expect that there would at least be some pullback from the hurricane. May be difficult to trade and we’ll have to see how things settle out on Monday. You may have to get something short near the open of Sunday night. Trump plans to announce new tariffs on up to $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Monday in a move that will prompt an immediate retaliation from China, and may lead to a sharply lower futures open on Sunday night.Continue reading

Wheat minimum numbers in

FOR MONDAY: (9/17) Minimum numbers for wheat came in and that may block corn from hitting the more ideal 346-7 area for now but possible with harvest pressure. Beans can’t be bought as a countertrend play unless we see 811-13, and that would take some major bad news out of China combined with harvest pressure.Continue reading

S&P sideways to higher on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (9/14) Pre-hurricane weekend, with cycles intense over the weekend for fear and it doesn’t look like it will be over by Monday but somehow the weather people always having us betting on the end of the world and it’s never quite that bad. Still, it will be a mess and will hurt the dollar short-term and create more debt with federal aid but when you have a printing press, who’s counting? We have been a bit gun shy this week but have had a sense of market numbers and direction. May be able to do something early next week.Continue reading

Cycles suggest short-covering for grains on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (9/14) Not sure we learned much on Thursday. With weekend harvest pressure, it may be too much to expect a short-covering bounce or a rally on Monday but it’s still early in the harvest season so maybe not too much pressure. Cycles suggest short-covering on Friday and higher prices on Monday. The wild card going into the weekend is Hurricane Florence. The spin and hype around these hurricanes often is worse than the actuality but we’ve seen rather dire things happen. Hurricane Florence is expected to influence crop production along the Atlantic coast, especially in North Carolina. The damage and recovery time to get back to normal will be a concern for traders as the balance of the week unfolds. Hard to say how many acres are influenced or how much permanent damage there will be but we are not dealing with the I- states in the Midwest, so in the end it won’t mean much for grains. We do see grains recovering on Monday into early next week, and ideally patterns to the downside would be done at 347 on Dec. corn and 811-813 on Nov. beans at 494-7 on Dec. wheat so that a natural rally would be due anyway.Continue reading

Bias for higher stocks, lower dollars into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (9/13) Trade waiting on Central Bank craziness for Thursday. We have hurricane and report paralysis for now and maybe we can get through it by early morning when most of it should be out of the way. For now, we have a bias for higher stocks into Friday and lower dollars, and that should allow metals to recover from deeply oversold conditions.Continue reading

Probably can’t press grain shorts

FOR THURSDAY: (9/13) Wondering when the trade will start worrying about crop loss in South. May be soon. Probably can’t press grain shorts until we get an overreaction to the upside now and grains are very oversold. Hogs finally getting a reality check that we could be repeating 1999 again.Continue reading

Looking for a retracement up to S&P 2897.50

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/12) Super Thursday is approaching with a number of Central Bank meetings (but not the US until Sept. 26). Nothing happening on the commodity front of interest just yet or with other markets. Hurricane Florence and potential damage is a concern, and China rhetoric and planning continues to ratchet up–and it’s not a good idea to corner a Panda when her cubs are threatened. Not going to end well.Continue reading

Stocks still looking bearish

FOR TUESDAY: (9/11) Wondering if 9/11 Memorial will spook anyone on Tuesday. Most markets were quiet and not telling us much, as Super Thursday is approaching with a number of Central Bank meetings (but not the US until Sept. 26). Nothing happening on the commodity front of interest just yet or with other markets. Hurricane Florence and potential damage is a concern, and China rhetoric and planning continues to ratchet up–and it’s not a good idea to corner a Panda when her cubs are threatened. Not going to end well.Continue reading