FOR THURSDAY: (9/13) Trade waiting on Central Bank craziness for Thursday. We have hurricane and report paralysis for now and maybe we can get through it by early morning when most of it should be out of the way. For now, we have a bias for higher stocks into Friday and lower dollars, and that should allow metals to recover from deeply oversold conditions.Continue reading
Probably can’t press grain shorts
FOR THURSDAY: (9/13) Wondering when the trade will start worrying about crop loss in South. May be soon. Probably can’t press grain shorts until we get an overreaction to the upside now and grains are very oversold. Hogs finally getting a reality check that we could be repeating 1999 again.Continue reading
Looking for a retracement up to S&P 2897.50
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/12) Super Thursday is approaching with a number of Central Bank meetings (but not the US until Sept. 26). Nothing happening on the commodity front of interest just yet or with other markets. Hurricane Florence and potential damage is a concern, and China rhetoric and planning continues to ratchet up–and it’s not a good idea to corner a Panda when her cubs are threatened. Not going to end well.Continue reading
Should see 858 on Nov. beans
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/12) Another USDA report day. The trade tends to sell any results in September so any friendly surprises need to be sold. We have put some orders in. Continue reading
Stocks still looking bearish
FOR TUESDAY: (9/11) Wondering if 9/11 Memorial will spook anyone on Tuesday. Most markets were quiet and not telling us much, as Super Thursday is approaching with a number of Central Bank meetings (but not the US until Sept. 26). Nothing happening on the commodity front of interest just yet or with other markets. Hurricane Florence and potential damage is a concern, and China rhetoric and planning continues to ratchet up–and it’s not a good idea to corner a Panda when her cubs are threatened. Not going to end well.Continue reading
Next corn sale may be Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY: (9/11) Trade waiting on Wednesday’s USDA report and many think that corn will miss estimates, and that’s probably the case. Still, upside potential is limited. Hogs should be impacted by the Hurricane, as the Carolinas are huge hog producers. Still, the market came off a 1.20 from the highs.Continue reading
S&P looks lower into Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (9/10) The Sept. swoon should continue a few more days for stocks before a larger congestive bounce. Given this market’s tendency for sucker punches, we always have to sell at key areas. Is the higher employment data a game changer for bonds and the dollar? Usually it is but we will have to see how it reacts early next week.Continue reading
Need a pullback into Tuesday to buy cattle
FOR MONDAY: (9/10) Logic has us thinking cool and wet weather over the weekend will spook grain traders higher although many normal cycles would be lower on Sunday/Monday. We are going with logic and we got long wheat and are open to chasing beans more than corn. Need a pullback into Tuesday to buy cattle. Canadian deal will not be done until later in the month and higher Chinese tariffs may be the wild card and straw that breaks.Continue reading
Deepest break with really bad news would be to S&P 2860
FOR FRIDAY: (8/31) Long weekend makes it hard to take a position but the market tends to be higher after Labor Day and cycle high into Sept. 6 is looming. Any Canada deal going into Friday could be a huge boost by the end of the week. Can’t short stocks at all-time highs.Continue reading
Not much upside potential for corn
FOR FRIDAY: (8/31) Not wanting to have much on before the long weekend. Grains are oversold and if lower targets come in, then a short-covering rally buy may set up before the USDA report the first few weeks of September. Also have to deal with Canadian stats out on Friday and also any surprises from Canadian negotiations around NAFTA.Continue reading