FOR MONDAY: (9/24) We see harvest pressure hitting grains into Sunday-Tuesday, and someone is going to use this rally to empty their bins. Too early and too big of a crop to declare a major bottom. Cattle on Feed was as expected but dips should be bought, with higher prices the rest of the week. Hogs look higher the rest of the week, with Monday vulnerable, and we’ll wait there before chasing.Continue reading
Markets in paralysis before FOMC
FOR FRIDAY: (9/21) Quadruple Witch can be a big sideways nothing after an early spurt and isn’t a great trading day. Markets in paralysis before FOMC and while we still have a bias toward higher gold and silver and lower dollars, not much happening yet without much more of a crisis. Going to leave it alone before the weekend break.Continue reading
Exaggerated short-covering may not mean much
FOR FRIDAY: (9/21) Cycles are mixed. Definite chart turn-ups for wheat and beans but corn is lagging, and we’re coming into weekend harvest action and Sunday look lowers and also possibly Monday. Exaggerated short-covering may not mean that much given the large crops. We had exited ½ of corn and bean hedges already and should have a chance to get out of more later. Cattle look lower one more day; hogs should do profit-taking but don’t look done.Continue reading
Volatile cycles on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (9/20) Not sure we learned much on Wednesday but global rates are in a bit of a crisis and dragging US notes lower. Stocks are still in Lala land and some minor flight to quality. Cycles are volatile on Thursday and not sure we have anything definitive to do and expect more range trading than anything.Continue reading
Too dangerous to buy grains
FOR THURSDAY: (9/20) We had grains recovering on Wednesday but think it may be a 1-day shot. Grains are often lower on Thursdays and beans need to take out 836 to trigger a daily chart reversal. Action on Wednesday was promising but too early to signal a seasonal bottom. Corn still would look better at 340 or 336.50 and 801 for Nov. beans, and wheat will get dragged along. Too dangerous to buy. Some rains in the Midwest will delay harvest but not enough to prevent farmers from emptying their bins. Hogs may be too overbought to go much farther if 6100 comes in on October. Cattle aren’t coming off much but cycles suggest they should. Ideal sales there from higher levels, which we probably won’t see until Thursday.Continue reading
Not seeing S & P much above 2921 on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/19) Usually a week before FOMC we get congestive whippy ranges and we are starting to set up for that. Not seeing S & P much above 2921 on Wednesday but starting to look like stocks, gold and crude and T-notes are higher into Friday and dollar lower.Continue reading
Key numbers in on grains
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/19) Key numbers in on grains. Lower is very possible. Cycles are more mixed than higher into Friday so not seeing any need to buy with harvest pressure building. Hogs may get oversold and fall into Friday with no place to go. Cattle are mixed and we have a bias toward lower prices.Continue reading
S&P needs to take out 2888 quickly to fall deeper
FOR TUESDAY: (9/18) Stocks down a bunch in the night session as the reality of the tariffs sets in. Should at least spill into Tuesday and maybe Wednesday. Cycles are volatile and something unexpected involving the military or natural disasters around earthquakes could develop within the next few days, and it has been tense with hurricane and tornadoes.Continue reading
Cycle low for grains into Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY: (9/18) We found a new cycle low for grains into Wednesday that we missed in earlier research so no reason to bottom pick corn early. Beans projecting 805 now and wheat could easily get taken along for the ride. Will the trade buy the fact of the China sanctions or will they just quickly drop it another rung. No reason to but can you get into shorts?Continue reading
Stocks look lower Sunday night, Monday
FOR MONDAY: (9/17) We have stocks lower on Sunday night and Monday, and would expect that there would at least be some pullback from the hurricane. May be difficult to trade and we’ll have to see how things settle out on Monday. You may have to get something short near the open of Sunday night. Trump plans to announce new tariffs on up to $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Monday in a move that will prompt an immediate retaliation from China, and may lead to a sharply lower futures open on Sunday night.Continue reading