T-notes looking lower

FOR TUESDAY: (8/28) GDP is on Wednesday and we’re always worried about these holiday weeks as the trade will start leaving by Wednesday and nothing will happen until Sept. 4. The dollar downtrend is more solid, as is gold, and you can’t sell the stock market when it’s at record highs so go with the trend. T-notes look lower much of the rest of this week.Continue reading

Wheat hits major support

FOR TUESDAY: (8/28) We had the right idea to buy cattle but missed getting in. Wheat hit major support and sometimes you have to buy key numbers. Grains cycles still may be under pressure into at least Wednesday or longer, and not sure no-more-NAFTA news is a total saving grace as the grain trade ignored the new deal with Mexico.Continue reading

S&P looks higher on Monday

FOR MONDAY: (8/27) Not sure the market cares about political noise and it will go on for months and months anyway and doesn’t mean much if corporate earnings and US growth is there. Will have to see how HI comes in over the weekend. Some fear cycles will intensify starting Tuesday of next week so we wonder if we get a strong move up for stocks Monday/Tuesday and then nowhere to go until the end of the month on Friday. Volume disappears as everyone heads out for the Labor Day weekend.Continue reading

Bounces into Monday should set up sales

FOR MONDAY: (8/27) Warm weather may cause a little short-covering on Monday but we need the crops to dry out now and the forecast for the first few weeks of September is helpful. Any bounces into Monday should set up sales. COF report was bearish but market is very oversold so we may get Cattle on Fade reaction.Continue reading

Stocks still lower on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (8/24) Market still congestive before Jackson Hole and China news. Seems not to care much about Trump scandal. We still can be rather congestive on Thursday, and then we have to deal with lots of news and craziness on Friday. Never a dull moment. We have a bias for toward a negative resolution for stocks on Friday but we’re so used to surprises with all of this stuff. They never make it easy.Continue reading

Lower corn support could fall to 358.50-353.00.

FOR FRIDAY: (8/24) Grain cycles are still weak into Monday and while we had this week lower, we were unable to get anything short. Rain has come on time in August, increasing the chances for big soybean and corn crops. Farmers need to empty bins of old crop supplies, producers need to price basis and price later contracts before Aug. 31, and long positions must move out of the nearby contracts before first notice day. Some position squaring continuing before the COF report on Friday.Continue reading

Gold too overbought to chase

FOR THURSDAY: (8/23) Market still congestive before Jackson Hole and China news. Seems not to care much about Trump scandal. May still be rather congestive on Thursday, and then we have to deal with lots of news and craziness on Friday. Never a dull moment. We have a bias for toward a negative resolution for stocks on Friday but we’re so used to surprises with all of this stuff. They never make it easy. Already gold is too overbought to chase up here and may be coming off.Continue reading

Stocks sell signal has come in

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/22) Market sharply lower on the Cohen news but may recover by the morning. We got the stocks sell signal and now have to find a place to get in. Dollar really falling apart but need a dead-cat bounce into Wednesday to get in and will look in the morning.Continue reading