Gold too overbought to chase

FOR THURSDAY: (8/23) Market still congestive before Jackson Hole and China news. Seems not to care much about Trump scandal. May still be rather congestive on Thursday, and then we have to deal with lots of news and craziness on Friday. Never a dull moment. We have a bias for toward a negative resolution for stocks on Friday but we’re so used to surprises with all of this stuff. They never make it easy. Already gold is too overbought to chase up here and may be coming off.Continue reading

Stocks sell signal has come in

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/22) Market sharply lower on the Cohen news but may recover by the morning. We got the stocks sell signal and now have to find a place to get in. Dollar really falling apart but need a dead-cat bounce into Wednesday to get in and will look in the morning.Continue reading

Cycles are volatile Sunday/Monday

FOR MONDAY: (8/20) Cycles are volatile on Sunday/Monday and we could get some wild geo-political news, and it has been happening already. Patterns for stocks look a bit higher and if there’s no wild news, the market tends to find a way to go up on Mondays. Tuesday looks more vulnerable for stocks. Two key trend changes for many markets over the weekend and so by late Monday, we should have reversals in place from last week, with metals looking lower from weekend highs into Wednesday and the dollar recovering next week. Oil looks higher until the Aug. 27, and stocks should do another leg lower next week but can’t rule out first running wild to the upside on Sunday or early Monday.Continue reading

Inflationary cycles peak on Monday

FOR MONDAY: (8/20) Inflationary cycles peak on Monday and it could pull grains up for a final flourish but grains look lower the rest of the week and inevitably Chinese talks will fail and the market will head lower. At the point where we have to worry about seasonal pressure starting to come in. Cattle look lower all week and hogs are in Chinese heaven and it may last until Wednesday.Continue reading

Stocks look higher into Sunday

FOR FRIDAY: (8/17 no change) Expecting stocks to recover the next few days while metals should find a temporary floor and do a dead-cat bounce. While stocks have issued a stronger sell-signal, we can probably only count on another 61 S & P points lower from wherever the market stalls into Sunday or Monday. There’s a sense that with Turkey, the other shoe could drop and set off a major crisis but not clear on the timing and need to research much of September, which tends to be bearish for stocks anyway.Continue reading

Expect grains will hold up on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (8/17) Expect that grains will hold up but could be lower on Sunday/Monday if there’s any surprise negative news from China. Hard to take anything home, and the optimism about China may hold the market up into Monday until there is the next disagreement. Tired of this story. Cattle didn’t go down and could go up one more day.Continue reading

Metals should find a temporary floor

FOR THURSDAY: (8/16) Expecting stocks to recover the next few days while metals should find a temporary floor and do a dead-cat bounce. While stocks have issued a stronger sell-signal, we can probably only count on another 61 S & P points lower from wherever the market stalls into Sunday or Monday. There’s a sense that with Turkey, the other shoe could drop and set off a major crisis but not clear on the timing and need to research much of September, which tends to be bearish for stocks anyway.Continue reading

Beans lower on Thursdays

FOR THURSDAY: (8/16) Usually we can count on grains moving lower on Thursdays, and Wednesday’s failure is a reminder that this market is still a bit on the ropes. Weather is cooling and wetter and that will alleviate any late concerns about beans. Cattle recovered but unlikely we’ll stick around too much longer, as we had a cycle high here.Continue reading