FOR THURSDAY: (8/23) Market still congestive before Jackson Hole and China news. Seems not to care much about Trump scandal. May still be rather congestive on Thursday, and then we have to deal with lots of news and craziness on Friday. Never a dull moment. We have a bias for toward a negative resolution for stocks on Friday but we’re so used to surprises with all of this stuff. They never make it easy. Already gold is too overbought to chase up here and may be coming off.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY (8/23) Market managed only a weak 3-wave bounce. The most bullish pattern would allow a fall to at least 2841.75 even if the market surprises us so we can stick with shorts. Should have some weakness overnight into early morning–and if not much manifests and 2860 can’t come out, we may be waiting for Jackson Hole and Chinese news and be in limbo-land. The trade may continue to wait for Jackson Hole. Failure to fall on Wednesday wasn’t a great sign and if there’s no break into about 9-10 am, we think the market will levitate up. This market has been long overdue for a fall and held up about ½ day longer than we expected but should be starting the 61-point fall into Friday. Might turn into more but computer ALGOS are fueling a fall here for now. Major support at 2839-40.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Possibly lower into Aug. 24.