FOR FRIDAY: (3/2) Volatility is rather intense and cycles are complicated. Rallies overnight on stocks can be sold overnight and into Friday but once S & P 2600 comes in, we doubt the market will continue with a waterfall. Markets are getting complicated and cycles are rather complex into the weekend so expect more crazy action.Continue reading
Some cycles suggest a strong rubber-ban recovery
FOR THURSDAY: (3/1) We usually can count on first-of-the-month buying to save the market and with some oversold conditions from the 2-day blood-bath, investment bankers may scoop stocks up. There’s a lot of data on Thursday, and that may fuel moves. Some cycles suggest a strong rubber-ban recovery the next few days but risk-taking cycles do get volatile going into the weekend. Seasonally, the later part of March is often bearish so we need to keep that in mind.Continue reading
Hard to chase on a Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (3/1) Didn’t get our pullback and hard to chase on a Thursday, which is often lower. Market remains very strong so not sure what to do. When these markets start turning into weather markets, pullbacks are minor and sometimes you have to jump. July wheat looks like a buy at 501 and July beans at 1059 and more ideally at 1048.Continue reading
Surprises on Tuesday with Powell remarks
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/28) The surprises came on Tuesday with Powell, as in the end, his comment on fiscal responsibility and problems down the road in a few years were sobering and needed and painful. In the end they were interpreted as being hawkish. Usually that kind of movement is carried over into Asia and Europe, which missed some of the late show.Continue reading
Hogs look terrible technically
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/28)) March grain first day notice should create some profit-taking there, and that’s why we can’t be long those contracts. Cattle should bounce 1 more day and hogs look terrible technically but may stabilize on Wednesday. End of the month fund profit-taking can distort patterns, cycles and technicals.Continue reading
Dollar cycles point lower this week
FOR TUESDAY: (2/27) As much as we would like to trend-trade and hold, action on Sunday and potentially this week reminds us that these markets have rhythms that change weekly. The dollar failed to breakout last week and cycles point lower this week unless Powell turns uber-hawkish, and gold could get pulled up. New highs on NQ remind us that the SP will follow and that late to the party bears are going to be in trouble even if we still get wild 30-50 point corrections at times. Never a dull moment.Continue reading
Cattle should bounce 1-2 days
FOR TUESDAY: (2/27) March grain first day notice should create some profit-taking there, and that’s why we can’t be long those contracts. Cattle should bounce 1-2 days and hogs look terrible technically but may stabilize and bounce on Tuesday.Continue reading
Dollar looks lower this week
FOR MONDAY: (2/26) Not sure there‘s anything huge pending over the weekend. The week before employment report usually has a big-range Monday and then a lot of congestion. NQ made new highs on the move and should pull the S & P. Not sure that bears can hope for anything meaningful this week but month-end profit-taking should hit from Monday into Wednesday. Dollar looks lower this week and has failed to break higher to 9050 or 9080 and we’re not into selling with the change of trend.Continue reading
Grains should be sharply lower into Wednesday
FOR MONDAY: (2/26) Not sure we learned anything from Friday’s action, with beans making a slight new high on the week but just by a hair get someone’s stop. Market should be sharply lower into Wednesday so that may mean the weather will shift so be protective; it may be that we have to sell a rally into Sunday or Monday morning. Cattle on Feed was considered neutral to bearish but market was a bit oversold going into it. Hogs also look lower for Monday.Continue reading
Choppy action, big ranges in stocks
FOR FRIDAY: (2/23) No US reports on Friday. The trade will look elsewhere to Europe and Canada. The Eurozone will release its final consumer price index (CPI) reading for January on Friday. A stronger than expected CPI print could renew investor expectations the central bank could tighten monetary policy measures sooner rather than lighter after the release of somewhat dovish ECB minutes Thursday. The minutes showed that the central bank continued to believe that patience was needed as inflation remained weak and agreed that it was still “premature” to adjust forward guidance. Canadian inflation data also coming. Choppy action and big ranges in stocks is good for traders with nibble fingers but not a great trending situation.