FOR THURSDAY: (3/15) Grains continue to be whippy with Chinese trade fears and other craziness happening. Soybean prices saw a double-digit drop Wednesday amid expectations for a huge 2018 U.S. crop, and corn also trended lower, but wheat hung on for some small gains as traders contemplated export data, weather trends, South American crops and more.Continue reading
Next cluster of key cycles into March 18
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/14) There was a huge cluster of positive cycles peaking into March 12-13–and given a number of reversals, we have to assume that something bigger is happening until the next cluster into March 18, and then the trade is on hold into the FOMC announcement. On the fundamental level, trade war against China is not a help for the market and the momentum that started Tuesday, may continue. Reuters is reporting that Trump is planning to impose tariffs on $60 billion of Chinese imports. The tariffs will primarily target technology and telecommunications imports – but would not be expressly limited to these sectors, according to one source. Politico reported earlier that Trump rejected a plan for imposing $30 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, saying they weren’t big enough. Just when investors thought President Trump might be easing up on his protectionist push following the uproar caused by his decision to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, Politico is reporting that Trump’s next trade salvo will be explicitly directed at China.
Getting out of short grains and going long.
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/14) We looked closely at grain cycles and the most bearish cycles ended last night and most of the cycles into Friday and next Sunday seem friendly. Patterns aren’t done to the downside with beans but definitely getting a bit late to push shorts, and they probably have bottomed already. Getting out of short grains and going long.
MAY FEEDER CATTLE (electronic session ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/14) Not enough of a recovery here but you would think they’ll follow live cattle higher. Resistance at 145.50 is minimum target. Small chance for 141.65 first. We will leave it alone but we do expect a recovery to Monday even if there’s a new low on the current move on Wednesday.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming Wednesday; higher into Monday.
Will watch the 2771 region
FOR TUESDAY: (3/13) CPI is key here but market not likely to crash with new highs in NQ and likely to come in SP. Will watch the 2771 region for a place to be a buyer.Continue reading
Willing to buy hogs
FOR TUESDAY: (3/13) Not sure the grains will continue much lower past Tuesday or a more congestive pattern may develop. Willing to buy hogs but mixed signals on cattle.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/13) Wheat bounced enough that 500 isn’t likely to come out. Market may be a buy in the morning actually but we’ll see how it acts overnight. Need to do more work around the rest of the month.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Tuesday; recovering Wednesday.
Minor cycles point lower for a few days
FOR MONDAY: (3/12) Stock market roared back to life with huge gains in employment and lessening fear about North Korea and tariffs. Minor cycles point lower for a few days so we’ll have to see what Tweet happens over the weekend to worry the markets. Still, larger optimism cycle into Tuesday may override everything. There’s a lot of crazy optimism out there and it may not go away. Given the way patterns look on NQ, have to assume you buy the S & P until NQ futures hit 7500. Not sure what to do with weak March seasonals but they seem ore likely to be a problem the last week of March for now and then often we get a pullback into tax filings.Continue reading
Cattle look higher on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (3/12) Technicals issued strong sell signals for wheat and beans although we had noted them earlier. If we get bounces, we can still sell as a larger pullback is likely to happen now. Cattle look higher on Monday on the technically strong close and hogs are unclear.Continue reading
Some chaos already overnight
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/7) Gary Cohen resigned late in the day and the stock market sold off strongly, and there are more Tariff wars with China looming in late news. It’s going from bad to worse for globalists following the Gary Cohn resignation, as Bloomberg just reported that the Trump administration is considering a major clamp down on Chinese investments in the U.S. by slapping tariffs on a broad range of its imports in response to alleged intellectual-property theft. Some chaos already overnight and more coming.Continue reading
Grains could hold up into Friday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/7) We looked closely at grain cycles and could see grains holding up into Friday and higher pattern completions coming in. Cattle look lower for a few days and hogs look lower into Thursday. USDA report on Thursday may create sideways action position squaring now. Wild spillover from Financial markets likely also.Continue reading
Stocks may retrace some of Monday’s gains on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (3/6) We could see stocks retrace some of Monday’s gains on Tuesday before going higher into Wednesday and Thursday. Dollar looks lower now and gold higher but it’s not significant for a choppy week. Oil should recover into Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.
OVERALL: Monday can be important for taking a position on the week, but the week before employment report can be whippy and congestive and doesn’t always lend itself to trend trading. We have a bias for higher stocks this week into Thursday but the ideal buy S & P zones of 2630 or 2602 haven’t come in and have a chance early in the week. Dollar is usually congestive this week and hoping for a weak rally in gold so we can get short into March 13. We’re watching key turns on March 8 and 13 for most of these markets.