FOR THURSDAY: (3/1) We usually can count on first-of-the-month buying to save the market and with some oversold conditions from the 2-day blood-bath, investment bankers may scoop stocks up. There’s a lot of data on Thursday, and that may fuel moves. Some cycles suggest a strong rubber-ban recovery the next few days but risk-taking cycles do get volatile going into the weekend. Seasonally, the later part of March is often bearish so we need to keep that in mind.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (3/1) The market did fall on schedule, and day-traders who shorted the market did well. Market bounced off of the 20-day ma and should recover to at least 2745-6 if not more. Lower support overnight not as likely at 2700 and 2685.50. Sometimes these blood-baths continue with contagion to Europe and Asia so we can’t just bottom-pick but may buy in the morning if the market is stable, as first-of-the-month buying should come to rescue. Our calendar doesn’t indicate non-farm payroll until Friday, March 9, and we wonder if the market will pause.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher into Friday.
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