FOR FRIDAY: (3/2) Volatility is rather intense and cycles are complicated. Rallies overnight on stocks can be sold overnight and into Friday but once S & P 2600 comes in, we doubt the market will continue with a waterfall. Markets are getting complicated and cycles are rather complex into the weekend so expect more crazy action.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (3/2) We were very wrong about a bounce today for the 1st of the month, as the trade was more worried about tariffs and trade wars than anything else. The market fell 50% of the recent rally but closed above 2660. Cycles are complex going into the weekend, and we originally thought Friday was lower and chance are contagion will spill overnight into Asia and Europe. Next key support is at 2630 and then 2600 and 2590.
The congestion triangle theory is still strong at work and although we thought that 2590-2600 could happen later in March, if the trade gets freaked out, it could happen quickly and then be followed by a strong recovery. The action of the last few days is the kind that we get in whippy 4th-wave triangles and we just missed the ideal rebound zone at 2802 by 15 points. So the rubber band will still come in from 2590-2600. So often we get retracements before the new lows so a recovery to 2720 would not be a shock very soon.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Volatile Friday; higher Sunday.