Friday looks mixed for grains

FOR FRIDAY: (12/8) While grain cycles look higher Dec. 10-15, Friday looks mixed and grains are all on the edge at key numbers. Buying Sunday may be easier if there are no major breaks or surprises. Cycle highs dominate for hogs and cattle next week with Friday a transition day and we’ll feel better buying on Monday.

MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/8) We didn’t quite get filled and still have a chance to buy slightly lower and not needing to chase. Market should hold up into Dec. 17-18. Overall, March needs to move at least another 14 cents higher from this upcoming low–and if 349 holds, then 363 would be the projected move.
OVERALL: After the first week of December, seasonally the market is often sideways to lower; could hold up into Dec. 15-18 at best.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Friday; higher Dec. 10-17.

Debt ceiling issues loom

FOR THURSDAY: (12/7) While the debt ceiling is an issue, the Treasury can find emergency money buy borrowing from the Government employee pension fund like they have done before. The U.S. Treasury would exhaust all of its borrowing options and run dry of cash to pay its bills by late March or early April if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling before then, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday. “If the debt limit remains unchanged, the ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will be exhausted and the Treasury will most likely run out of cash by late March or early April 2018,” it said. So Friday’s deadline is a bit artificialland we wonder if the meeting with Bernie Saunders and Elizabeth Warren and Trump will produce any progress.Continue reading

Bean cycles weaker than grains

FOR THURSDAY (12/7) Bean cycles are weaker than the rest of the grains and usually we don’t push longs on Thursday but larger cycles suggest that we can be long wheat and corn for a few days. Cattle is seasonally lower into Dec. 10 and looks like it’s in trouble so still can sell one more day or so.Continue reading

Gold looks like a bounce from Wednesday’s low

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/6) Should be a mini-climax overnight for stocks and we should get a rubber-band bounce as is often the case here. Tensions over the debt ceiling may fray nerves. Gold looks like a bounce from Wednesday’s low into Friday so too late to sell.Continue reading

Cattle, hogs looking higher on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY (12/5) Grains are in transition on Wednesday and we’ll put orders in, as many could bottom early and then close higher and be higher the rest of the week. Cattle should be higher another day and usually we can count on hogs being higher on Wednesday.Continue reading

Congestion triangle pattern setting up

FOR TUESDAY: (12/5) Chances are a congestion triangle is forming on stocks and once you recognize the pattern it is rather predictable. We can get away with short stocks into early Wednesday and should get a bounce to get in from. Hoping we can get into short gold also. Scared about the dollar with the budget ceiling finally getting paid attention to.Continue reading

Patterns, cycles suggest temporary topping into early Sunday

FOR MONDAY: (12/4) Patterns and cycles suggest temporary topping action into early Sunday and a pullback for 2-3 days. While we think grains will hold up into Dec. 15-17, we have to bank profits and see what kind of retreat happens for a few days. Cattle still look vulnerable for 1-2 more days and then are a buy. Hogs look higher all week and we should be buying.Continue reading

Bubble cycles peaking here

FOR FRIDAY: (12/1) News-flow around the tax bill is a bit untradeable and we remain skeptical that Congress will get their act together before the Christmas recess by Dec. 14-15. Bubble cycles are peaking here and the market may be vulnerable next week. NQ remains top heavy and SP has gone 20 points above long-term targets. Definitely in nose-bleed territory and we’re not fond of trading news markets. Will advise in the morning.Continue reading

Many grain cycles positive on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (12/1) Usually we can count on first of the month buying with grains in December. While beans are a bit weaker than we had liked, we had thought that 982.50 could hold before they might go up again. Many cycles are positive on Friday for grains so we should be more aggressive buying and adding. We often see a seasonal flurry of grain buying Dec. 1-5. Cattle still look weak and hogs could be volatile so move stops lower.

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