Patterns, cycles suggest temporary topping into early Sunday

FOR MONDAY: (12/4) Patterns and cycles suggest temporary topping action into early Sunday and a pullback for 2-3 days. While we think grains will hold up into Dec. 15-17, we have to bank profits and see what kind of retreat happens for a few days. Cattle still look vulnerable for 1-2 more days and then are a buy. Hogs look higher all week and we should be buying.Continue reading

Bubble cycles peaking here

FOR FRIDAY: (12/1) News-flow around the tax bill is a bit untradeable and we remain skeptical that Congress will get their act together before the Christmas recess by Dec. 14-15. Bubble cycles are peaking here and the market may be vulnerable next week. NQ remains top heavy and SP has gone 20 points above long-term targets. Definitely in nose-bleed territory and we’re not fond of trading news markets. Will advise in the morning.Continue reading

Many grain cycles positive on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (12/1) Usually we can count on first of the month buying with grains in December. While beans are a bit weaker than we had liked, we had thought that 982.50 could hold before they might go up again. Many cycles are positive on Friday for grains so we should be more aggressive buying and adding. We often see a seasonal flurry of grain buying Dec. 1-5. Cattle still look weak and hogs could be volatile so move stops lower.

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Market volatility is up

FOR THURSDAY: (11/30) Month-end profit-taking could hit on Thursday and market volatility is up and bubbles are bursting even with Bitcoin. Still, energy may remain optimistic overnight and could bleed into Thursday if they like progress on the tax bill. We can’t count on bubble bursting energy and even NQ’s free fall today was a technology glitch by Fidelity. The employment report is not until Dec. 8 and somehow we thought it was Friday and now the budget deficit ceiling deadline and employment report bleed into the 8th. Have to think the trade will get nervous after this weekend but we continue to rely on patterns and technicals to keep us of trouble. Very key minimum weekly chart resistance is close at 2640. Near the close, after a full day of debating the GOP tax reform bill, the Senate has now approved a motion to…drum roll please…debate the GOP tax reform bill.

Could see a seasonal flurry of grain buying Dec. 1-5

FOR THURSDAY: (11/30) We’re approaching month-end position squaring and grains are a bit oversold after the last few days but not sure the slide will stop until maybe Thursday. The 29/30 day cycles are weaker the next days but many of the other cycles are positive into Friday, and we often see a seasonal flurry of grain buying Dec. 1-5. Chances are we’ll have to buy this dip but we’ll be patient.Continue reading

Will North Korea’s missile test upset the bull?

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/29) Will North Korea’s latest missile test upset the bull? Sometimes for 1-2 days but usually not more. The peak of a speculative bubble cycle is due by Sunday and that may mean that stocks and Bitcoin finally take a rest after that and bank profits before Christmas. Upper targets for stocks that we thought might take until 2018 are close at 2640 now on the S & P. We still see a June 2018 cycle high for stocks so it is not over. Congress does need to agree on a budget ceiling extensions with that key date into Dec. 8. Any major rambling and rumblings and the market might get upset but the thought is that they will come up with a stop-gap remedy. We should start to congest early week gains for now.Continue reading

Grains oversold

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/29) We’re approaching month-end position squaring and grains are a bit oversold after the last few days but not sure the slide will stop until maybe Thursday. The 29/30 day cycles are weaker the next days but many of the other cycles are positive into Friday, and we often see a seasonal flurry of grain buying Dec. 1-5. Chances are we’ll have to buy this dip but we’ll be patient.Continue reading

Volume usually increases on Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (11/28) Mondays often have to be discounted as a throw away day and volume usually increases on Tuesday. The week of employment report is often congestive and we’re still dealing with month-end position squaring into Thursday. Congress will recess on Dec. 14-15 and the thought is that they will do a stop-gap extension for weeks for the Dec. 8 government funding ceiling and try to pass something shortly thereafter. It’s thought that the first week of Congress being back will focus on the Tax bill, and getting that through will be crucial for the bulls–and we’re skeptical given cycles and where markets are and the way they’re acting.Continue reading

Mixed cycles for grains

FOR TUESDAY: (11/28) Crude prices are projecting 6035 over the next week or so and that could keep grains bid. The dollar broke key support at 9300 and projects 9231 but much below that and 9155 would be serious. Still a few days for the dollar to break and that will help grains. The 29/30 day cycles are weaker the next few days but many of the other cycles are positive into Friday and we often see a seasonal flurry of grain buying Dec. 1-5. Chances are we’ll have to buy this dip but we’ll be patient.Continue reading