FOR FRIDAY: (12/1) News-flow around the tax bill is a bit untradeable and we remain skeptical that Congress will get their act together before the Christmas recess by Dec. 14-15. Bubble cycles are peaking here and the market may be vulnerable next week. NQ remains top heavy and SP has gone 20 points above long-term targets. Definitely in nose-bleed territory and we’re not fond of trading news markets. Will advise in the morning.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (12/1) The 20-point fall off of the highs on tax reform ambush strategies from Corker reminds us how sensitive this market is going to be to news-flow. We have our bubble cycle peaking over the weekend and the absurd target of 2684 (which is now 2690) doesn’t seem that impossible here in bubble-land. The risk on any trade is very high and 2660 may not come out before the weekend. Will advise in the morning.
NQ is struggling and its recovery was feeble but a bit noble.
NEAR TERM: Telescoping nature of the breakout suggests two more highs at least and our project to 2690 may not but off the wall in bubble-land but maybe that will happen later in the month if the trade takes a break before the tax bill and budget deficit. The sharp falls and weird patterns and divergence on NQ are signs that toppy action is coming.
OVERALL: We’re seeing at least a 110-point fall from wherever the market stops but not that might even be 2690. Lower target is possible to 2400-2385 if war talk starts about N. Korea and Senator Graham is stirring that pot. It does look like a Christmas recovery will happen the week of Dec. 11-15 and possibly into the Dec. 22. There is not much time to fall but the week of Dec. 4-8 is very possible. It has been suicidal to top pick this market and it’s not due for a final top until June 2018.
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