FOR MONDAY: (10/16) Not sure if harvest pressure will mean much but markets are oversold for grains but still look higher a few more days. Key numbers of 1007 for Nov. beans and 444 for Dec. Chicago wheat are close and corn will go for the ride. We should be selling these rallies on wheat and be patient with beans but will have to be more aggressive by Tuesday in terms of selling. New research on cattle suggests lower prices into Thursday now and hogs may hold up into then.Continue reading
Stock market is tiring
FOR FRIDAY: (10/13) Stock market is tiring and there are a number of larger cycle changes happening starting Friday and into the coming weeks that may give this market pause to go much higher. We’re not into top-picking stocks but will be alert. Not sure people want to go home long again before North Korea red letter day on Oct. 18. We found a bunch of minor cycle inversions and end of the week profit-taking may set in for sideways congestion anyway.Continue reading
Grains likely to consolidate on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (10/13) Thinking the trade will consolidate gains in beans and corn on Friday but we still see higher prices early next week. Cattle look lower on Friday and a dominant cycle into Oct. 26 may push the market lower the rest of the month, and we probably will stick with shorts. Hogs should be higher one more day and we will evaluate them later.Continue reading
Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar
FOR THURSDAY: (10/12) Latest projection on N. Korea missile launches is Oct. 18 in celebration of a Communist Party event. That may give another week breather in the tensions. Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.Continue reading
Corn, wheat very oversold
FOR THURSDAY: (10/12): Trade waiting on the USDA report on Thursday. Cycles the next few days are more bearish than bullish but corn and wheat are very oversold and hit key support patterns, so we have to assume they buy the news on Thursday and retrace Friday and then be higher early next week. Grains are too oversold to chase at current levels. Cattle looks lower the next few days and hogs still should recover.Continue reading
Focus on cycle lows into Monday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/11) Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Not sure FOMC minutes will mean much but they always cause the computer Algos to trigger. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.Continue reading
Meats still looking strong
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/11): Trade waiting on the USDA report Thursday. Could see quiet ranges but should see another day up in hogs and cattle and congestion higher for beans.Continue reading
S&P due for 30-point pullback
FOR TUESDAY: (10/10) Reversals in the dollar and metals remind us that we have to be alert for something on the S & P but it may not be Tuesday because upside pattern was not completed there to 2562 and NQ isn’t done either. That means long stocks today and watching for pattern completions. As noted below, a 30-point pullback on the S & P is all that we can count on this week but open to surprises given that gold needs to go to 1325 and silver to 1770 and oil is up this week. Still waiting for the apocalypse with North Korea and hopefully God has better plans that will cause less suffering.Continue reading
Could see quiet ranges for grains
FOR TUESDAY: (10/10): Trade waiting on crop conditions after the Columbus Day holiday. Grains came off a bit. Not too much to add to this morning’s comments. Could see quiet ranges but should see a 2-day recovery in hogs and cattle and congestion higher for beans.Continue reading
Surprised oil futures stayed near their lows
FOR MONDAY: (10/9) Feels like another waiting for apocalypse weekend with Trump talking about the calm before the storm and N. Korea liking to launch rockets before on their National Holiday on Tuesday. Hurricane Nate may only be Category 1 but headed for the Gulf region. Surprised that oil futures stayed near their lows. Chances are nothing will happen and the stock market will continue on its merry way higher.Continue reading