FOR TUESDAY: (5/9) Have to get into long dollars and short Euros tonight as we see a trend up on the dollar for about two weeks. Europe is still a mess. T-note patterns don’t look as great as we had thought on Friday so be defensive. S & P could squeak out a slight new high and NQ is close to doing so already.Continue reading
Hogs look lower on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (5/9) Grain cycles are weak the next few days and much of next week so it’s hard to imagine anything that would push them up in a crazy way at the report. If we get short-covering, it may allow new sales or reentries as key numbers were triggered on Monday for a sale on beans and won’t not take much to do so on corn. Cattle are due for a 1-day bounce but look weaker into Friday now and hogs look lower on Tuesday and are getting too strong to sell now.Continue reading
Dollar close to pattern completion at 9810
FOR MONDAY: (5/8) Since that Macron looks like a done deal with a 20% lead, the Euro should take off and push the dollar down and stocks may squeak higher. The issue is how long will it last and when will sell the fact hit? We are close to pattern completion on the dollar at 9810 but will it go more with gold projecting higher prices into Thursday? S & P and NQ at new highs can’t be ignored with pullbacks this week now minor. Crude looks lower all week but how do you sell a 3.00 rally off of the lows? More chills and spills this week.Continue reading
Cattle bottom by Monday
FOR MONDAY: (5/8) Grain cycles are weak the next few days and much of next week so it’s hard to imagine anything that would push them up in a crazy way. Cattle may find a bottom by Monday and recover and not sure they’re done. We’re doing a countertrend trade in hogs and will hold into Tuesday.Continue reading
Short-covering probable for crude, dollar and metals
OR FRIDAY: (5/5) We found a larger cycle that’s creating skittishness in traders into the weekend and hopes for rallies that we had seen on many markets into Friday seem like dreams. Thinking we will get end of the week short-covering for crude and the dollar and metals before the French election and metals look higher next week and stocks lower. Always hard to play these political events.Continue reading
Grain weakness into early next week
FOR FRIDAY: (5/5) We exited long grains before the meltdown but didn’t reverse, as the market was too high off of the recent highs. We see weakness into early next week so there’s still time and room but will have to pick our spots carefully. Winter wheat futures posted double-digit losses on Thursday to wipe out nearly all of this week’s post-storm gains, as a crop tour forecast an average Kansas yield above the five-year average. The selling in wheat likely helped pull down corn and soybeans, but the latter two crops may have been pressured by forecasts for drier planting weather this weekend and next week. Flooding along rivers and streams in the Midwest will remain a concern for a few days. Despite the wheat yield forecasts, agronomists on the tour and elsewhere in the state said it will be a week or more before crop damage from the storm can assessed.
Larger cycles suggest skittish trading
FOR THURSDAY: (5/4) We found a larger cycle that’s creating skittishness in traders into the weekend and hopes for rallies that we had seen on many markets into Friday seem like dreams. Many markets are oversold and there were key turns due at the FOMC announcement and that has us wondering. Let’s see how the morning looks.Continue reading
Grains often lower on Thursdays
FOR THURSDAY: (5/4) Grains are often lower on Thursdays so it’s hard to hold them when they underperform. Will wait until the morning and move stops up tightly to protect any profits but not sure we will get upper targets for grains that we had hoped for. Cattle continue to run away at limit up and cycle highs dominate into Friday. Hogs are coming into their own on seasonal strength and we have missed the boat there.Continue reading
Weaker dollars, stronger gold ahead
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/3) Trade awaiting FOMC announcement on Wednesday. With the Fed unlikely to hike again this time, if we get a somewhat hawkish tone today, or even praises on the labor condition, rest assure market will blow it out of proportion and push USD higher. Given the recent GDP print for 1st quarter, it seems hard to expect a hawkish tone or rate hike this meeting. Cycles are volatile for Wednesday and something unexpected seems likely based on cycles but exactly how to trade that isn’t clear. Our cycles into the end of the week focus on weaker dollars and stronger gold and higher stocks and higher bonds and higher crude and that is what we will focus on.Continue reading
Hogs may have trouble taking out 7500
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/3) Usually we can count on grains being higher on Wednesday but cycles are rather sickly this week and we wonder if the market could just sit waiting for wheat damage reports. Still, grains look higher here but then lower into May 11-12 so we’ll want to take profits. Hogs may have trouble taking out 7500 and then pull back and cattle is too overbought to chase.Continue reading