FOR THURSDAY: (5/11) We have a bias toward stocks bouncing on Thursday and would love to buy a pattern completion but still looking for 40 ticks off the highs on NQ and not sure what will create that. The dollar looks higher all week and that doesn’t jive with a 2-day bounce for gold, which isn’t happening either. Luckily the news front is relatively clear compared to past weeks.Continue reading
Harvest pressure for wheat
FOR THURSDAY: (5/11) USDA report is out of the way and now it is matter if a flooding rain front pushing across the Midwest spooks traders. Given warm and dry in the 10 days, this last storm may not mean much. Can wheat really recover much given harvest pressure? While 9% of the crop is lost, there is still a lot of world wheat out there. Cattle cycles are weaker a few more days along with hogs but cattle is a bit overdone now.Continue reading
Favoring lower stocks on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/10) We have a bias toward lower stocks on Wednesday but we don’t think the move higher will be over until next week. The dollar looks higher all week and that doesn’t jive with a 2-day bounce for gold. Luckily the news front is relatively clear compared to past weeks.Continue reading
Cycles still weak this week
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/10) Not sure the USDA report means anything in May and the bounces for beans and corn today were healthy short-covering. We still see weaker cycles overall this week and would use any rallies to continue to add shorts. Soybeans closed higher to recover yesterday’s losses amid reports of slow planting in the Midwest and the likelihood of more delays as storms move from the Rockies to the Atlantic this week. We’ll have some strategies in the morning based on overnight action but it’s likely to be short-covering.Continue reading
Looking to buy the dollar
FOR TUESDAY: (5/9) Have to get into long dollars and short Euros tonight as we see a trend up on the dollar for about two weeks. Europe is still a mess. T-note patterns don’t look as great as we had thought on Friday so be defensive. S & P could squeak out a slight new high and NQ is close to doing so already.Continue reading
Hogs look lower on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (5/9) Grain cycles are weak the next few days and much of next week so it’s hard to imagine anything that would push them up in a crazy way at the report. If we get short-covering, it may allow new sales or reentries as key numbers were triggered on Monday for a sale on beans and won’t not take much to do so on corn. Cattle are due for a 1-day bounce but look weaker into Friday now and hogs look lower on Tuesday and are getting too strong to sell now.Continue reading
Dollar close to pattern completion at 9810
FOR MONDAY: (5/8) Since that Macron looks like a done deal with a 20% lead, the Euro should take off and push the dollar down and stocks may squeak higher. The issue is how long will it last and when will sell the fact hit? We are close to pattern completion on the dollar at 9810 but will it go more with gold projecting higher prices into Thursday? S & P and NQ at new highs can’t be ignored with pullbacks this week now minor. Crude looks lower all week but how do you sell a 3.00 rally off of the lows? More chills and spills this week.Continue reading
Cattle bottom by Monday
FOR MONDAY: (5/8) Grain cycles are weak the next few days and much of next week so it’s hard to imagine anything that would push them up in a crazy way. Cattle may find a bottom by Monday and recover and not sure they’re done. We’re doing a countertrend trade in hogs and will hold into Tuesday.Continue reading
Short-covering probable for crude, dollar and metals
OR FRIDAY: (5/5) We found a larger cycle that’s creating skittishness in traders into the weekend and hopes for rallies that we had seen on many markets into Friday seem like dreams. Thinking we will get end of the week short-covering for crude and the dollar and metals before the French election and metals look higher next week and stocks lower. Always hard to play these political events.Continue reading
Grain weakness into early next week
FOR FRIDAY: (5/5) We exited long grains before the meltdown but didn’t reverse, as the market was too high off of the recent highs. We see weakness into early next week so there’s still time and room but will have to pick our spots carefully. Winter wheat futures posted double-digit losses on Thursday to wipe out nearly all of this week’s post-storm gains, as a crop tour forecast an average Kansas yield above the five-year average. The selling in wheat likely helped pull down corn and soybeans, but the latter two crops may have been pressured by forecasts for drier planting weather this weekend and next week. Flooding along rivers and streams in the Midwest will remain a concern for a few days. Despite the wheat yield forecasts, agronomists on the tour and elsewhere in the state said it will be a week or more before crop damage from the storm can assessed.