FOR THURSDAY: (5/4) Grains are often lower on Thursdays so it’s hard to hold them when they underperform. Will wait until the morning and move stops up tightly to protect any profits but not sure we will get upper targets for grains that we had hoped for. Cattle continue to run away at limit up and cycle highs dominate into Friday. Hogs are coming into their own on seasonal strength and we have missed the boat there.Continue reading
Weaker dollars, stronger gold ahead
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/3) Trade awaiting FOMC announcement on Wednesday. With the Fed unlikely to hike again this time, if we get a somewhat hawkish tone today, or even praises on the labor condition, rest assure market will blow it out of proportion and push USD higher. Given the recent GDP print for 1st quarter, it seems hard to expect a hawkish tone or rate hike this meeting. Cycles are volatile for Wednesday and something unexpected seems likely based on cycles but exactly how to trade that isn’t clear. Our cycles into the end of the week focus on weaker dollars and stronger gold and higher stocks and higher bonds and higher crude and that is what we will focus on.Continue reading
Hogs may have trouble taking out 7500
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/3) Usually we can count on grains being higher on Wednesday but cycles are rather sickly this week and we wonder if the market could just sit waiting for wheat damage reports. Still, grains look higher here but then lower into May 11-12 so we’ll want to take profits. Hogs may have trouble taking out 7500 and then pull back and cattle is too overbought to chase.Continue reading
Stocks still positive
FOR TUESDAY: (5/2) Trade waiting for FOMC on Wednesday but is already buying the Congressional confirmation of a budgetary settlement until Oct. 1st. There’s still too much going on with North Korea and saber-rattling but cycles for stocks are still positive until the end of the month so “what me worry.” Could see the buy in October and sell in May people taking profits at 2400 on the S & P comes in again.Continue reading
Grains look higher into Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY: (5/2) Fun day if you were long and we were but got out too quickly although our corn exits were near the highs of the day. Assuming that grains could continue higher into Wednesday, as some cycles are inverting. Market went so far this week already, we wonder if it can go much farther to the upside.Continue reading
News-dominated weekends always precarious
FOR MONDAY: (5/1) These news-related weekends are always precarious and we’re unable to do much about them unless we put out updates and new trades before the Sunday open. We’re assuming that the budget extension will pass for another week but that means another exciting weekend next week. We’re more concerned about Puerto Rico but think North Korea is more a problem in June and July. We can put in orders to buy and sell key numbers as outlined in our Friday morning service.Continue reading
Wheat patterns suggest higher prices Sunday/Monday
FOR MONDAY: (5/1) Corn and soybean futures closed a little lower for the day following big first-day deliveries for both crops and forecasts favoring dry planting weather next week in the Midwest. Winter wheat futures closed higher for the day and week ahead of a weekend in which freezing temperatures could threaten headed wheat in the Plains and flooding could hurt SRW wheat in the Midwest. Patterns on wheat suggest higher prices Sunday/Monday before profit-taking and seasonal pressure set in. That may pull corn up. Beans are in trouble and could break hard into Wednesday. Cattle may pull back for a few days from Monday but then seem higher into Friday and hogs are also likely to stall out near 7480 and pull back.Continue reading
Markets in holding pattern waiting on budget
FOR FRIDAY: (4/28) Markets are in holding pattern waiting on budget. Late wranglings are politics as usual with fights over Obamacare and Puerto Rico which should go bankrupt next week. We may not get a resolution until Friday night and the markets could be in limbo and then explode. Feeling like a secondary high for stocks on Friday and then weakness next week. We did look at cycles for next week and the dollar should top out on Monday and be lower next week and vice-versa for gold and silver. T-notes look higher also next week.Continue reading
29-day cycle friendly for grains on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (4/28) The 29-day cycle is friendly for grains on Friday and we have to think the market could go crazy given weekend weather forecasts and then get overdone and turn lower next week. Cattle still have room to go higher into Monday and are in are a bit too difficult to play like a Chinese knife acrobatic act. Hogs are worth a buy on dips.Continue reading
Stocks still seem safest buy on dips
FOR THURSDAY: (4/27) Bank of Japan overnight and then ECB and Korea is still making background noise. The problem is that there‘s usually a reason not to trade every day. Sometimes you have to take a brave stand based on pattern. ECB days are filled with surprises more than most so stay alert. Stocks still seem the safest buy on dips based on NQ patterns and breakouts there to new highs which will bring the rest of the market higher.Continue reading