FOR TUESDAY: (5/9) Have to get into long dollars and short Euros tonight as we see a trend up on the dollar for about two weeks. Europe is still a mess. T-note patterns don’t look as great as we had thought on Friday so be defensive. S & P could squeak out a slight new high and NQ is close to doing so already.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (5/9) S & P went to the end of a minor breakdown coming off 14 points off the highs. While the hourly chart looks overbought and hinging over, we wanted to see a print of 2387 to get more bearish for a 2-3 day pullback to 2365. If the market gets any good news overnight, we could see 2409 come in before a pullback. NQ got closer to 5666, hitting 5660 overnight and closed near the highs of the day and it usually keeps out of trouble with shorts. Given the strength of funds to buy any dips, we can’t get too bearish. Eventually 2417 will come in next week and NQ 5707 or higher needs to come in and complete for a meaningful daily and weekly chart pattern. Until then we’ll get messy congestion and have to play the ranges.
PATTERNS: Patterns from the 2375 low, look like we could get two more slight new highs with 2409 probably capping the upside the next 1-2 days. Market would have to take out 2386.50 to turn us a bit more bearish.
WEEKLY CHART: Maybe a 15% fall from June to October but a seasonal drop usually happens after mid-June. NQ has clearly needed new highs to 5707 and probably more before the S & P will cave in.
LONGER TERM: (4/26) Expecting a May high and a new NQ high unless NQ takes out 5400–and if that’s the case, we’ll get a divergent S & P high to maybe 2420. Expecting that 2150 is the most likely first downward target into September/October if the market can close below 2300. May not get the sell signal until June.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Mixed to higher Tuesday; lower into Wednesday; higher into Thursday.