FOR MONDAY: (5/8) Since that Macron looks like a done deal with a 20% lead, the Euro should take off and push the dollar down and stocks may squeak higher. The issue is how long will it last and when will sell the fact hit? We are close to pattern completion on the dollar at 9810 but will it go more with gold projecting higher prices into Thursday? S & P and NQ at new highs can’t be ignored with pullbacks this week now minor. Crude looks lower all week but how do you sell a 3.00 rally off of the lows? More chills and spills this week.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (5/8) Patterns would suggest a 6-point pullback hold 2394 and then a move to 2405-06. Even if we get a 14-point pullback into Tuesday/Wednesday, it would hold 2390-92 now and then work up to 2415-17. Small chance for 2365 now. Le Pen win would be a major upset and seems unlikely to happen and trade wants to be long into the win for Macron. Guessing we’ll get a range on Monday/Tuesday between 2406-2392.
WEEKLY CHART: Maybe a 15% fall from June to October but a seasonal drop usually happens after mid-June. NQ has clearly needed new highs to 5707 and probably more before the S & P will cave in.
LONGER TERM: (4/26) Expecting a May high and a new NQ high unless NQ takes out 5200–and if that’s the case, we’ll get a divergent S & P high to maybe 2420. Expecting that 2150 is the most likely first downward target into September/October if the market can close below 2300. May not get the sell signal until June.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Sunday/Monday; lower into Tuesday.
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