FOR TUESDAY: (4/25) Lots of Central Bank meetings by Thursday with Bank of Japan and the ECB. We think that the cycles favor a budget deficit resolution by late Friday night, which just may mean kicking the can down the road but the market is fine with that as long as stocks go higher. Dollar needs to go to 9800 and stocks had enough of a breakdown as seen in NQ that our projection for NQ highs in May is still on target.Continue reading
Wednesday could be a bounce day
FOR TUESDAY: (4/25) Plantings reports were bearish but not sure the market will go down that much and even if they do, we think Wednesday could be a bounce day. We still like the short side but have to make sure the trade does not get too upset about excessive rains in the 7-day forecast. If we get a bounce on feeders, look to sell. Hogs now should be up this week so buy pullbacks on Tuesday.Continue reading
Cycles still point towards mild recovery in stocks
FOR MONDAY: (4/24) Stocks ended softer ahead of the weekend and will turn their attention to next week’s budget talks and government funding deadline on Friday. Cycles still point towards a mild recovery in stocks and continued rebound in the dollar. Gold should be backing off after Friday’s surprise recovery. Crude may be overdone on the downside and we may adjust our cover target for our short position.Continue reading
Cattle looking overdone
FOR MONDAY: (4/24) We covered our grain shorts on Friday in corn and beans. Cycles should allow for a minor recovery with planting progress likely still below average. Cattle looking overdone and may present a sale up towards 1.18, but clearly a top pick as we move into May. Missed our hog sale on Friday’s by 15 ticks and have already fallen to our target. Will re-evaluate Monday.Continue reading
Crude looks lower into Monday
FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We’re still a bit in paralysis mode and expecting that people will want to be flat going into the weekend but many are thinking that any North Korean nuclear test won’t happen until early May and ships heading for that area may take a week to get there. We ran cycles into Sunday/Monday and the dollar looks higher now and gold and silver lower and crude lower so if we trade technically and with cycles, we have to go that way.Continue reading
Seasonals, weather weigh on grains
FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We feel good being short grains into Friday but could get a bounce early next week if weather changes or the market fails to breakdown enough. Still, seasonals are against this market and there’s nothing in the news but a concerns about fewer corn plantings. Thirty-day outlook for rains are normal so is there anything to save corn?Continue reading
Dollar looks higher into Sunday/Monday
FOR THURSDAY: (4/20) We ran cycles into Sunday/Monday and the dollar looks higher now and gold and silver lower and crude lower. Stocks should recover from a lower open on Thursday and should be a day-trade long. Still, world aggression and violence cycles are strong into Tuesday and we remain concerned about trigger-happy generals reacting to North Korea, which may not be ready for a nuclear test until May based on some reports. Hard to assume that gold will go up and the dollar lower if violence breaks out. With our new cycle work, we’ll go with those bets rather than speculation about the world.Continue reading
Cattle looks lower on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (4/20) We feel good being short grains into Friday but could get a bounce early next week if weather changes or the market fails to breakdown enough. Cattle looks lower on Thursday but if no break happens, we still might get new highs on Friday. Hogs had a technical breakdown and weak cycles are into Monday, and we should be selling rallies if we can get.Continue reading
Whippy action likely to continue
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/19) Whippy action on Tuesday with the UK call for June 8 elections causing a lot of unwindings in currency positions, as short pounds were suddenly not the place to be. Whippy action likely to continue for a week based on cycles, more saber-rattling and war cycles with North Korea and the “forgotten” debt ceiling crisis that has a deadline for April 28. Will be hard to put in too many orders overnight but we have to on some level.Continue reading
Cattle still could be up on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/19) We were wrong about grains turning around this week but Wednesday is often the safest day for them to go higher and they are a bit beat up and looks like minor 4th-wave bounces are due. Still, seasonals often turn down in late April and we probably were too optimistic. Not panicking yet but grains are in trouble. Cattle still could be up on Wednesday and we’ll buy oversold conditions for hogs.Continue reading