FOR THURSDAY: (4/20) We feel good being short grains into Friday but could get a bounce early next week if weather changes or the market fails to breakdown enough. Cattle looks lower on Thursday but if no break happens, we still might get new highs on Friday. Hogs had a technical breakdown and weak cycles are into Monday, and we should be selling rallies if we can get.Continue reading
Whippy action likely to continue
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/19) Whippy action on Tuesday with the UK call for June 8 elections causing a lot of unwindings in currency positions, as short pounds were suddenly not the place to be. Whippy action likely to continue for a week based on cycles, more saber-rattling and war cycles with North Korea and the “forgotten” debt ceiling crisis that has a deadline for April 28. Will be hard to put in too many orders overnight but we have to on some level.Continue reading
Cattle still could be up on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/19) We were wrong about grains turning around this week but Wednesday is often the safest day for them to go higher and they are a bit beat up and looks like minor 4th-wave bounces are due. Still, seasonals often turn down in late April and we probably were too optimistic. Not panicking yet but grains are in trouble. Cattle still could be up on Wednesday and we’ll buy oversold conditions for hogs.Continue reading
Dollar higher into Thursday
FOR TUESDAY: (4/18) While the markets went to the edges in terms of bounce and retracement, the writing on the wall suggests higher dollars into Thursday and it won’t take much to pull stocks up. Basically the market is rebalancing last week’s conditions and waiting on news. Our sense is that cycles into Friday-Tuesday of next week support battle conditions and guns will go off. We don’t see nuclear war but cycles are hitting the US and Trump very exactly that he will be aggressive. I suspect even though we want to dump our positions from last week, we may have to get back into them on Thursday.Continue reading
Grain cycles supportive into Thursday
FOR TUESDAY: (4/18) We looked at cycles for grains into Thursday and they seem supportive so a light buy is favored. Cattle cook missed and hogs higher now into Thursday. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first. The dollar may recover into Wednesday from oversold conditions.Continue reading
Fear cycles still strong into Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (4/17) Markets are closed on Friday but economic cycles continue to come out. Fear cycles are still strong into Tuesday so we suspect that whatever happens over the weekend, it won’t be roses and lollypops. Sometimes extreme moves on Sunday night have no place to go by early Monday and if we get huge gaps on Sunday, you have to expect that is possible. Still, the market may be in trouble into Tuesday and maybe much of next week. We’ll put out an update on Sunday night if geo-political bombings and war cycles create too much potential energy but hopefully we can enjoy our holiday weekend and you can also. Three-day weekends are difficult to trade under normal circumstances so be careful out there.Continue reading
Looking to add more grains on pullbacks on Sunday night
FOR MONDAY: (4/17 no change) We looked at cycles next week and they look friendly for grains and cattle but lower for hogs. We’ll probably want to add more grain on pullbacks on Sunday night. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first.Continue reading
Gold continues to look higher
FOR THURSDAY: (4/13) World political and tension cycles are still strong into Thursday and saber-rattling is escalating with China on the border and the North Korean President having a press conference at 6:20 am to demonstrate something. Who wants to be long dollars in this scenario? We looked at next week and gold continues to look higher and the dollar low and next week cycle lows for crude dominate and stocks should mostly be lower much of the week. We have to assume that the trends will continue and nothing will be resolved over the long holiday weekend.Continue reading
Position squaring for long weekend
FOR THURSDAY: (4/13) Trade will be position squaring for the long weekend. We looked at cycles next week and they look friendly for grains and cattle but lower for hogs. We’ll probably want to add more grain on pullbacks on Sunday night. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first.Continue reading
World political and tension cycles still strong into Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/12) World political and tension cycles are still strong into Wednesday and Wednesday night but may lift late in the week. We looked at cycles for North Korea and its President and he could easily not survive world pressures from China and the US this summer but there’s a lot of time until then. Usually these situations get worse before they get better so expect that the trade will stay on edge on Wednesday. Anxiety cycles and military reckless cycles continue into April 23 so if anything, things will heat up.Continue reading