FOR THURSDAY: (4/20) We ran cycles into Sunday/Monday and the dollar looks higher now and gold and silver lower and crude lower. Stocks should recover from a lower open on Thursday and should be a day-trade long. Still, world aggression and violence cycles are strong into Tuesday and we remain concerned about trigger-happy generals reacting to North Korea, which may not be ready for a nuclear test until May based on some reports. Hard to assume that gold will go up and the dollar lower if violence breaks out. With our new cycle work, we’ll go with those bets rather than speculation about the world.
JUNE T-NOTES (10 year) (Electronic Version)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/20) Support at 125.25 and 125.17 with major resistance at 126.28-127.01. Notes looks higher on Thursday and lower into Friday and lower into Monday. If the market doesn’t surge wildly up on Thursday, then the danger zone for a weekly chart breakout is over. We’re still not into top-picking but there may be reason for it on Friday and certainly into early next week. We have to run cycles for May to confirm a seasonal fall but the weekly chart pattern is complete and the acceleration to 127.18 seems less likely but not impossible.
SHORT-TERM: Weekly chart patterns had allowed 126.17-20 for a 3 waves up. Much above there and the market is moving into uncharted territory in understanding current patterns but 127.18 would be next.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into April 20; lower into April 21.
FOMC MEETINGS 2017: May 2-3; June 13-14*; July 25-26; September 19-20*; Oct/Nov 31-1; December 12-13.*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
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