FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We’re still a bit in paralysis mode and expecting that people will want to be flat going into the weekend but many are thinking that any North Korean nuclear test won’t happen until early May and ships heading for that area may take a week to get there. We ran cycles into Sunday/Monday and the dollar looks higher now and gold and silver lower and crude lower so if we trade technically and with cycles, we have to go that way.
JUNE MINI CRUDE ($5 Crude)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Sell June mini crude at 5095 with a 5225 stop. Exit 4890.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/21) Three waves up could get to 5105 to set up the last sale. We have a bias toward a lower action into Monday and it seems that a move to 4880 so quickly for a pattern completion is unlikely. The bigger concern is that a larger pullback to 4595 could happen. Worth a light sale and not as North Korea-sensitive for now.
OVERALL: Originally, we had thought 5750 might cap this year’s advances. Saber-rattling could raise it to 6000 or 6500 and save the oil producing countries depressive economic quagmire. With US stocks lower this summer, we really wonder if this market can get back up there. We need to crunch May and June cycles intensely.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower April and 24; recovering April 25.