(3/13) Not sure the FOMC meeting matters given a 100% chance for rate hike now and 50% even for June. The big elephant in the room remains the Debt Ceiling and I have not seen any rhetoric out of the White House to address it. Cycles turn intense into Tuesday and a number of markets point lower like crude and stocks and the dollar with gold being higher.Continue reading
Grains have issued sell signals
FOR MONDAY: (3/13) Winter storms over the weekend may excite trade a bit but always hard to play these things. Grains have issued sell signals with projections into March 26-27 and we’ll use any strength to get short but may have a better chance on Tuesday. Cattle look higher at least a few more days and hogs are very choppy and have to play the ranges.Continue reading
March 15 borrowing ceiling limit may spook the markets
FOR FRIDAY: (3/10) Another employment report day but somehow this one seems really important even with over a 94% of a March rate hike. If we get a weak number, the trade and expectations building all week will unravel all over the place. We don’t want to be too heavily positioned. The big Elephant in the room is the March 15 borrowing ceiling limit and the reality of it may spook all the markets particularly if Trump takes a fiscally responsible tact, which he has alluded to in the past.Continue reading
A few energetic cycles could boost prices
FOR FRIDAY: (3/10) There are a few energetic cycles that are rather speculative for expansion and maybe returning winter weather or drier Plains may excite some buying for 2-3 days. Corn finished a pattern to the downside but not beans and wheat failed. Cattle look bid on colder weather.Continue reading
Cycles suggest gold will hold and recover into Monday
FOR THURSDAY: (3/9) We have rollover to June S & P starting and the trade continues to wait for employment numbers. Our cycle work suggests gold will hold and recover into Monday and that the dollar will come off but will it survive computer ALGO jerky action first?Continue reading
Hogs look weaker into early next week
FOR THURSDAY: (3/9) Grains were disappointing with continued profit-taking before the USDA on Thursday. If cattle complete downward patterns, we’re open to buying and hogs look weaker into early next week.Continue reading
Top in stocks confirmed
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/8) Confirmation of a top in stocks may finally have people heading for the exit after huge profits but we don’t see a major spill. Weird Wally Wednesday for stocks will have more longs exiting and rolling to June by late Thursday. Given a congestive week, we could see all the markets reverse a bit and drive us crazy.Continue reading
29-day cycle higher on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/8) The 29-day cycle is higher on Wednesday and some grains look higher on Thursday although beans are more iffy for Thursday’s report. Meats didn’t break hard enough on Tuesday and we’ll need to exit.Continue reading
Congestion before employment report
FOR TUESDAY: (3/7) S & P cash confirmed a top for now but we didn’t get a close below 2370 although it should come. So used to choppy congestive action before employment report that the chance of a sustained meltdown on the S & P is likely and at best 2350 could happen. Most interesting in the news is Asia with North Korea and major Chinese meetings. Wiretaps and impeachment headlines are mostly distractions to keep you addicted to increasing media ratings. Very sad the state that professional journalism has fallen to. Where is Walter Cronkite when you need him?Continue reading
Looking to buy dips on grains
FOR TUESDAY: (3/7) Cycles are bit mixed but the Goldman roll out of April meats should pressure them lower for at least one more day. Grains also look lower one more day but we do want to buy dips if we get them.Continue reading