FOR FRIDAY: (3/3) Yellen’s speech is replacing some excitement for what might have been a quiet Friday with the unemployment report not until March 10.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (3/3) We were stopped out as the market took out key support at 2380 and issued a minor sell signal. Cash support at 2372 would push futures to 2370 and if 2370 comes out on cash, we will have a confirmed top. Cycles are very mixed the next few sessions so I expect it will be complicated. Guessing that Yellen will disappoint and confuse the world and go against her governors to stir the pot. Chances for new highs are waning quite a bit. The most bullish pattern would only bring a 38-point correction here.
NEAR TERM: When one looks at the telescoping nature of this market, hard to see an 80-100 point correction. The 2520 projection for May is very clearly in the patterns now and wondering if it will happen. We see no point in top-picking.
OVERALL: (2/15) Still thinking an early April low and then still new highs this year and not thinking crash this year to 2520 and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% If things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse. Market seems lower from mid-May into late June and probably into July.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Complicated choppy/volatile toppy energy into Monday; lower into March 9; lower into March 14.